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  1. ph1l

    on parameter (over)fitting

    Yes, I might try to fit again on the same in-sample data. But if that's done too many times on the same data with the same general trading idea, the out-of-sample data is effectively also in-sample. So the system still might not work after it looks good on in-sample and out-of-sample data...
  2. ph1l

    on parameter (over)fitting

    Divide the data into in- and out-of-sample parts. For example, 70% in-sample, 30% out-of-sample. Create rules with ideas that make sense to you using the in-sample data. Test them on the out-of-sample data. If they work well, they might be a candidate for forward testing on completely new...
  3. ph1l

    A SpaceX flight attendant said Elon Musk exposed himself and propositioned her for sex

    The rumor going around is they look something like this. :D
  4. ph1l

    Fibs don't work

  5. ph1l

    Fibs don't work

    The paper has The the high and low points in the past 100 trading days are considered the zero and one levels and Fibonacci ratios like 0.382 and 0.618 of the differences around the found zero and one levels are considered for retracements and projections. As new high and low points are found...
  6. ph1l

    Travel: Italy’s newly discovered deep coral reef and Northern lights over Russia

    Google chrome with google as the default search engine lets you search for images with the right mouse button when the image is selected.
  7. ph1l

    Travel: Italy’s newly discovered deep coral reef and Northern lights over Russia

    https://www.tripadvisor.co.za/Attraction_Review-g1722390-d15554672-Reviews-Cape_Lion_E_Rides-Cape_Town_Western_Cape.html#photos;aggregationId=&albumid=&filter=3&ff=369159715 https://www.dangerousroads.org/africa/south-africa/334-chapmans-peak-drive-south-africa.html Where is Chapman's Peak...
  8. ph1l

    Fibs don't work

    I made a mistake in my post before. The histogram bar with the highest count was for 0.538637553686026 <= ratio < 0.551775054995441. The bar close to 0.618 had a slightly lower count. For something with finer granularity, Here, the intervals 0.499976170943578 <= ratio < 0.50010674711776 and...
  9. ph1l

    Fibs don't work

    I calculated prices waves using the method in this post for 27 ETFs (SPY QQQ IWM XLF XLE XLI DIA XLV XLK XLU XLY XLP XLB MDY SPYG SPYV SPTM SLYV TLT EFA EEM MDY EWW EWM EWG EWS GLD) on 18-22 years of daily prices adjusted for splits and dividends. Then I plotted the ratio of the price swing of...
  10. ph1l

    Fibs don't work

    It looks like you are saying Fibonacci ratios sometimes work when drawn after-the-fact to fit some part of the price movement.:)
  11. ph1l

    El Salvador to host 44 countries to discuss Bitcoin

    https://medium.com/@lightcoin/the-problem-bitcoin-solves-8b3944ea77a7 For example, someone pays you with bitcoin for something. If you decide not to send the thing to the other party, you don't have to give a refund. When the other party screams, "It's on the blockchain!" your reply can be...
  12. ph1l

    All Atheist's End up In Hell

    Unless He wants to .... https://www.bible.com/bible/100/EXO.32.14.NASB1995
  13. ph1l

    2000 Mules

    Dinesh D'Souza's 2000 Mules full movie (free, and no registration required): https://www.documentarymania.com/player.php?title=2000+Mules
  14. ph1l

    Where to Download Historical NAV of ETFs?

    ycharts has data with the % discount or premium to NAV. For example, https://ycharts.com/companies/URA/discount_or_premium_to_nav
  15. ph1l

    See, I told you my poop was valuable

    It depends on the value of yours vs https://nomics.com/markets/poop-poopcoin/usd-united-states-dollar :D
  16. ph1l

    NFTs, the next wave of stupidity

    Will this cause a new boom-boom in NFTs?:D https://www.express.co.uk/celebrity-news/1609532/Madonna-age-photos-Instagram-NFT-digital-art-3D-scan-vagina-giving-birth-news-latest
  17. ph1l

    Im Starting To Notice A Pattern...Again

    Here is an admission.
  18. ph1l

    Bitcoin Price Thread

    He doesn't look 99+ ... Or, maybe Bitcoin won't reach $120K next week?:)
  19. ph1l

    Genetic algos

    This is in response to something @stochastix posted but deleted (it's always possible I imagined that too:)). That code listing described the genetic optimization after other software created functions that model price movement like: y_hi = 110.319160461426 - 0.0421270467340946 * x +...
  20. ph1l

    Genetic algos

    Here are examples of how I've tried some ideas using genetic algorithms and genetic programming. https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/in-one-sentence-what-is-your-edge-for-2019.329802/page-8#post-4809209...
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