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Thanks for sharing your views. The 20sma is Ms. NoDoji's, not mine. I use a 50ema. My point was perhaps too subtle. One does not have to "feel" or "think" or "observe" that such-and-such a thing is true. One tests it to find out for sure.

Sorry, didn't realize you are an NQ trader. So am I. So independent of the actual cumulative volume numbers, if you don't see a lot of trades ("narrow" tick chart), you think of it as low volume? I suggest that for today only you would have to account for activity in both rollover contracts to...

Using $SPX as a surrogate for ES to avoid continuous contract issues, it appears that the efficacy of the 20sma is a relatively recent phenomenon. One could even argue that crossovers are more important. A backtest would resolve the question.

You adding U0 volume to M0 volume for today to form that opinion?

You mean how correlated?

Must be one hell of a complex algorithm.

Have you considered coding up "too picture perfect" and backtesting fading it?

Two percent a day makes you feel bad about yourself, my dear? You need help with your esteem issues.

Thank you for the new word. Although I would have said "masticated."

Fireplug, I agree to a point. But surely they don't want those idiots driving away posters and readers who are truly serious about trading. Let us suppose that someone prestigious here, like, say, ProfLogic, decided to pack it in because he swooned from the general stupidity? Then what would...

An example, only slightly exaggerated: "Herroe ETree trader! Andy trader from Litheyouwaneya? Anyboddly knoes a good strattlegy for trade ETF? Many thank in adrance!" Any similarity to Mizrael's style is fully intended. I would put the little shit on ignore, but he is too pathetically...

Have you read all of Murray's threads? He is the real deal, you know. Giving away millions in strategy profits for free. Spend some time with him. ET is THE place for free strategies. Don't overlook Jack Hershey and Joe Ross here, either. Much good advice to be had from them. ProfLogic has...

Anybody can scape up two grand to fund a futures trading account and get rich with a typical 500% per annum return. Opie has several trading systems, so he can get there several times faster.

But we digress. To address the OP's question, IMO, as stated, there is NO noise. It is all a matter of perspective. To an EOD trader, the intraday follies no doubt look like noise. To the intraday S/R trader, the tick-fucker's happy domain looks like noise. Blow the scale up to whatever trading...

I was but reading your mind. And no ET thread would be complete without a naively greedy plea for a free positive expectancy strategy. Puhleeeeeeeze? I am on Social Security and fixed corporate retirement. If you help me I'll be less of a burden to society in the future. I promise not to live...

Look at Murray Ruggiero's recently reopened thread on Toby Crabel's opening range breakout. A surefire winner for easy money! Rake it in! http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=72968

So you wouldn't go with as few as 20 trades?

We may be closer in attitide than I thought at first. Take the trade, or not? At what downside risk with what entry stop? At what potential loss of upside profit in a reversal while wanting to let it ride to what profit stop? At what loss of further upside profit by taking the statistically...

That is also the realm of estimation theory, where you have some rough idea of the dynamics and the noise, and an answer which is "close enough" is good enough. Who cares if you make $100 vs. $110 per contract on a scalp?

I think that's called non-stationary statistics. I cut the Gordian Knot with backtesting that merges it all together. Neither are the results stationary, but they suffice to make pocket change and to keep an old man out of trouble.