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I think it is not so much the ability of a trader to discover the information, but objective properties of the game to possess structural bias that can or cannot be discovered by a particular participant makes the difference. Unless the coin is objectively unfair the ability to discover it...

Semantics indeed. That is why I propose "statistical logic" term which describes exactly your method of betting. It is safer to assume that Gambling is betting on something knowing ahead of time that you have 50/50 chance of winning it. Semantics are important as words create structures of...

Overall, I think it was a productive discussion minus a few farts here and there :) . This subject interests me very much. Gambling often means "addiction" or other sorts of compulsive behavior. That is why most of the posts were related to the terminology rather than to the subject matter. It...

As a psychologist I am puzzled with one very unpleasant observation. Every thread on ET without any exceptions ends up with mutual insults and immature name calling. It is such a turn off for me. I always wanted to convince you people to carry on a thread without disgusting bullying and imbecile...

Over the last 15 - 18 years I have worked with over 300 traders. The best of them were also outstanding poker players! Almost without exception.

In a simple language: Placing bets on a coin tossing game played on a fair coin is gambling. But if it is noticed that the coin is "unfair" (has higher probability to land on tails, for example) placing the bets on the higher probability outcome is a statistical game. This gave birth to the term...

Gambling is a layman term for the "Game of Chance". Trading is a kind of a game where bets are consciously placed on the perceived higher probability outcomes of this multiplayer game. Trading is a typical non-cooperative game (John Nash) where each individual strategy depends on the success or...

This is my "official" opinion: http://www.amazon.com/Theory-Gambling-Statistical-Logic-Revised/dp/012240761X there is no need to rediscover the wheel!

Do you people read books at all?

Unfortunately, if you are serious about your idea you have to bite the bullet, learn programming and do it yourself from the ground up using a good API with one of the electronic brokers (IB, for example). You are not going to be able to "fit" you idea into something like Trade Station if your...

This is a Prop-Trading part of our business. http://www.marketguidance.com/index.html It is a separate operation from our Money Management division. The "multi-monitor" setups are used for all of our 3 divisions. We currently have operations in 4 different cities. The trading floors are...

Actually, its 8 times that, but thank you for bringing this old picture up. I have warm memories about my first set up.

For those who are still interested. Once you established the stable ratios between the strikes and premiums do the following. Create a drawing where you have 12 lines angled by 30 degrees to each other (much like the numbers on your clock face). Mark each end of the lines with the number that...

Yes, you are right. NONSENSE, QUACKERY, ASTROLOGY etc. Let us have a good laugh and forget about it. I guess, You can lead a horse to water, but you can't make it drink. Consider the whole thread as entertainment, no harm done. Yet again my attempt to ignite imagination brought nothing but...

Let us say that ES H9 trades at 827. For March expiration options nearest OTM put premium is Bid = 45.75 and Ask = 46.50. (Bid + Ask)/2 = 46.125. Let us deduct this number from the current price (827 – 46.125 = 780.87). The nearest strike is, of course 780. Put premium at 780 is Bid = 28.50...

Now that is a constructive and positive response! Useful and informative. The next step, of course is to compare how VIX influences the premium/strike price ratios and you got something in your hand! Good Luck!

We have learned that a very few people here on ET could intelligently discuss options and their properties. Even less of us could share ideas of their predictive power. The purpose of this discussion is to encourage people to learn more about hidden characteristics of options and their...

As usual, you have missed the point. As the matter of fact OP got the answer or at least an idea of a direction.

How about this? http://www.pnas.org/content/102/6/2254.full I do not believe that we are any different from ants when it comes to collective behavior patterns.

May be this will help a bit http://www.sciencedaily.com:80/releases/2008/03/080331110052.htm