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Generally I enter above previous highs but this time I thought the last top would be lower, forming a head and shoulders pattern...target near 3.5 with time stop at the end of october.:)

Hello guys, I am looking for motivation and I just realized that even if I am sure there are a bunch of consistently profitable traders in the grain markets, I don't know of exceptional masters...I just lack a clear picture of the potential, do you know people consistently pulling 7 or 8...

That's Oct/Jan , not Nov/Jan I guess. My spread range today was 5.525 to 6.1.

What about Nov14/Jan15 Feeders? There is a seasonal downtrend in the next 2 months and it is forming a triple top. I just shorted @ 6.

This is so interesting. I know some physical trading firms have databases with production, local consumption, production available for exports, imports needed...per country and derive trading systems from it, but I wonder if you can create a valid methodology out of marinetraffic...It would be...

Damn ...One of the best street style of today...Yes on Wes http://www.thrashermagazine.com/articles/videos/wes-kremers-crusty-by-nature-part/

Yep. That's not working in my favor...LOL

I have something interesting on sugar but it is my first sugar curve play, so take it with a grain of salt. IMO because of the big gap between 2014 and 2015 expiries, the shape of the curve in 2015 is unusual. March and May are too low compared to a typical year like 2016. Mar/May and May/Jul...

Brighton, where do you get those basis levels? I know nothing about basis( never been involved in physical grains ) but does it help you trade the futures markets when you know about odd supply/demand situation in specific locations? 3.3 basis in Ohio( not far from Chicago ) seems huge to me but...

I am super cautious about seasonality too. I lost a lot of money in 2012 blindly following a system like "long Dec/ Short Apr hogs on July 20th, close on august 10th". It should be a filter like Giant Hogweed said, nothing more.

http://www.tradersmagazine.com/news/technology/managing-the-hft-flood-112798-1.html?pg=1

Rachmaninov, those were just examples of the kind of trade idea I would find interesting. Just to illustrate the principle of the thread. I really don't know the link between milk and cattle markets or bean oïl carrying charges...But perhaps some people do ...And I would love to hear from them...

What is the basis for the first trade( soymeal/oil )? There were some articles last week about soyoil bottoming( ratio with palm oil...). Your trade made me check the nov crush. The crush margin is almost at its highest level in 20 years( unfinished purple line on the right ): There should...

Hello, The recent flow of threads in the ag forum makes me believe there is some interest in fundamentals/curve/interproduct analysis of ag markets. I would like to create a thread where we can discuss some specific opportunities...You think the March 2015 crush margin is too rich? Post it...

I have been a professional ag trader since 2007( 100% manual right now). I am mainly a liquidity provider but I also trade the different curves with short term spreads( 2 days to 1 month ). I am interested in creating a thread for spread ideas.

Clearport is the CME Platform for OTC products I think.

Thanks for the good threads and posts , Brighton and Rachmaninov. Just a question: How do you know N/X has been a crowded trade? rumors? volume analysis?

The real volume is on CU( NYMEX ) vs AC: http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/ But it is weird. CU has even larger spreads than AC. The volume you see must be prenegociated blocks or clearport...I agree it is a strange market.

For marketsurfer: http://www.thrashermagazine.com/articles/videos/bob-reynolds-40th-birthday-part/

http://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFL5N0QQ4A220140820?pageNumber=3&virtualBrandChannel=0