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Agree. Except bean oil has perpetually more of a contango structure compared to meal. It's just that oil is easily storable compared to meal which is perishable.

Anybody thinking about a Long soyoil/ Short Soymeal spread here? - Extremely low oïl value in the crush - Palm oïl rallying + El Nino - Soyoil forming something like a triple bottom - Soymeal curve getting bearish

Out @ 0.8 for a small loss/ scratch.:( Spot october is dropping.

Out @ -1.75.:( That was a bad day for sure.

Kind of. You have to check the lean hogs chapter in the CME rulebook. The index is an average of cash prices of the previous 2 days if I am right.

Grain stocks in 40 min.

DTN. CME Lean Hogs Index.Exactly, which is why you should be aware that cash and Oct will converge at expiration. It is early now, but in the last few days it has an important influence on price. More than usual the cash price fills the gap though...

Liquidated Half MW Dec/Mar @ -13.75 before grains stocks but since expectations are already super bearish, I might keep half. Short Apr/Jun/Aug Cattle fly @ 5.550. Didn't like the way I entered. I had to chase it for one week.

Beware that Oct > cash index...

Just to be sure, Long hogs/ Short Cattle? Any specific relative value reason other than their late trends?

Are you still in the MW Dec/Mar spread? I was thinking about closing it before Grain stocks. My target was at -12.5 but I am not sure I want to risk a bearish news for 1 point...

I am probably exaggerating. But not that much. My account was much smaller at the time. Just check what your broker will charge you as a penalty fee, probably something like 10K per lot. On top of the OTC or retendering price loss ...

Long Nov/Short Jan Robusta @ -8. "1058 GMT Coffee traders remain skittish about the possibility that a market player may try to squeeze the November robusta contract following a similar scenario in July. "Short squeezing" occurs when investors are forced to deliver contracts they held as part...

At Marex, it is your responsibility to close long positions before First Notice and you can stay short until expiration. They simply send you a reminder everyday from day - 4. They won't do anything. They will notice you of someone intending to deliver you the stuff and they will retender if...

That's right. Good observation.

The datas seems quite the same... So what are your metrics to judge a good seasonality? I did a previous attempt at seasonal trading a few years ago and at the time I used the window between the seasonal high and lows of the spread and I found it was much less reliable than what I am doing this...

Otherwise what do you think will happen on wednesday? On soy? Corn? Wheat?

Between Oct 1 and Aug 14 next year, it is a 95 % winning spread on 37 years...It rarely gets any better...But you are right, it is already too high( or low depending on how you quote ) and that was the reason I was reluctant to take it...

There is a long term seasonal window for Aug/Oct 16 Lean hogs starting now. It's really reliable historically, but it is quite high already and the spread is volatile in the mean time. Does it makes sense this year? I have a feeling I shouldn't take it... Any fundamental insight?

Short Dec/Feb/Apr Hogs butterfly @ -0.825. Long Dec/ Short Jan soymeal @ 1. I don't really like the technical configuration of the soymeal spread, but whatever...