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  1. dtrader98

    Social Security: How can it ever get exhausted??

    Assume the money never gets paid out (not unfathomable). How much utility did the little guy lose? How bout the millionaire? Does that sound equitable to you? No, I think you have it wrong. Let the rich guy pay out the full 6million, so he loses the same utility as the middle class, he...
  2. dtrader98

    Social Security: How can it ever get exhausted??

    what always amazed me is how they cap it. I.e. if you make 90k, you pay the full 6.2% Yet if you make 100million (or any amount above 90k), guess how much you pay? .006% Good ol' fair and equitable playing field in action. Money for congress subsidized by the poor and middle class.
  3. dtrader98

    Excel help needed

    glad to hear it brownsfan. Let me know how it looks over the long run.
  4. dtrader98

    Excel help needed

    If anyone has a handy vba dynamic update module to a 15 min price quote, can you post it for the OP? It'll save a lot of time.
  5. dtrader98

    Excel help needed

    I put together a simple three ETF example for you. Add as many ETFs as you want to look at the usefulness of the correlation index (here I just used a random generator to output the 3 ETF values and plotted ETF3 vs. avg corr of all 3, you can use yahoo finance to capture the daily data of...
  6. dtrader98

    Excel help needed

    Let me know if you are able to follow my instructions. Also you will need to find a 15 minute data feed to replicate his work. You can do it in real time with yahoo, but for backtesting, you need to find a 15 minute source in .csv (or suitable) format. You can play with daily quotes to start...
  7. dtrader98

    Excel help needed

    the most difficult part is the real time data feed (assuming you want that as well, even though he's just taking a static snapshot). Otherwise, he pretty much explained it. And it's pretty simple. You should ask him for a copy of his spreadsheet. It will be faster that way. Otherwise...
  8. dtrader98

    please help ? Dark pools trade volume?

    I think he was simply asking about transparency. As trading intentions and executions become more and more invisible, the small retail trader has not only less visibility, but less liquidity to trade into. There are even many companies opting to execute trades overseas for even less...
  9. dtrader98

    please help ? Dark pools trade volume?

    "...a member firm will seek to execute as much of the order as possible during the trading day.... Any portion not filled will be reported after hours. Members typically execute the unfilled balance of orders, AFTER the US consolidated tape is closed. In london, over the counter market, where...
  10. dtrader98

    please help ? Dark pools trade volume?

    this is what they say... "Still, every trade must be printed on the consolidated tape that is displayed in investment houses and on television every day. So the trades done secretly are made public immediately after execution." How accurate that is, I don't really know. I'd guess that they...
  11. dtrader98

    Ex-NYMEX director pleads guilty to fraud

    5 months for the most egregious offense, and probation for less flagrant violations! Let that be a lesson if you are thinking of ripping off millions from your retail customers. "...acknowledging that he had delayed customers' orders to buy or sell natural gas contracts and stolen their...
  12. dtrader98

    The New Math: Quantitative hedge funds are pressing into new realms of science

    sure. http://web.mit.edu/alo/www/Papers/august07_2.pdf
  13. dtrader98

    The New Math: Quantitative hedge funds are pressing into new realms of science

    There was an interesting paper I read on this recently. One thing is for certain, as more and more quant funds have jumped onto long/short mean reversion type strategies over the years, the expected daily returns have been diminishing in proportion. Meaning 1)markets are becoming more...
  14. dtrader98

    Freakonomics: "Stocks Surged [Plunged] Yesterday Because....Why?"

    I've learned long ago that the far majority of post descriptions relating to the markets movements typically have absolutely nothing to do with why they moved. They are an exercise in creative fiction. What I would like to see is, stock xyz soared/tanked because MMs xyz, in aggreagate, 1st...
  15. dtrader98

    Builders Get Breaks From Congress

    http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080403/homebuilders_congress.html "...would let companies use losses from 2008 and 2009 to offset profits earned over the previous four years, instead of the usual two-year timeframe. ...That's good news for big homebuilders" "Other big beneficiaries would be Wall...
  16. dtrader98

    Why do I see "Trends" in Randomly Generated Data?

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aHfkhe8.C._8&refer=home ``No self-respecting statistician in finance is using Gaussian statistics,'' interjects Lord John Eatwell, an economist and president of Queens' College at Cambridge University, who's sitting in the back. ``All models...
  17. dtrader98

    Why do I see "Trends" in Randomly Generated Data?

    Thanks maestro. Always glad to hear your input and ideas.:)
  18. dtrader98

    Why do I see "Trends" in Randomly Generated Data?

    All I can say is that the greatest minds and money have come up with systems to do just that (RAND corp for example). And over and over again they are wrong (very wrong). There was the modern prediction corp, that created a neural net to predict markets. Although they were bought out and...
  19. dtrader98

    Why do I see "Trends" in Randomly Generated Data?

    It never ceases to amaze me how many posters use mandelbrots name as some type of evidence that random walk proponents must be wrong because even the mighty mandelbrot showed that fractals are self-similar and chaotic, therefore, there is some underlying order to the markets that advanced...
  20. dtrader98

    Why do I see "Trends" in Randomly Generated Data?

    I think I follow the algorithm a bit. Without trying to ascertain the specifics, you are looking at a predefined decision rule (although they are both slightly different, why not find a rule and apply it identically to both cases, i.e. rather than chose between .3 to .32 for entry criteria, why...
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