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--BRAVO-- Moody's, S&P; the same culprits who were largely responsible for currency fiascos in the past (Partno has great book on this). Absolutely no one is focusing on them. There should be a MASSIVE overhaul on ratings requirements and what constitutes fraud. All this talk about how we...

It's quite obvious to even a ten year old that these problems did not just surface overnight. These types of banking fiascos surface over and over again over time. For instance, Mccain is no stranger to housing crises and banking scandals; I guess no one is old enough to recall the S&L...

Your desperate resort to juvenile defense mechanisms tell me all I need to know about your intelligence. Sorry to have wasted my time on a response. It's too bad you couldn't even see that you finally had someone with a bit more knowledge than yourself come to your defense on parrondo's...

... this makes no sense. How can you choose to stay out of the losing proposition in retrospect? You can not make a decision in hindsight. It's akin to saying let's assume we avoided picking the losing lottery numbers; now let's study the dynamics under that assumption. Gee, this system...

Good practical examples of GARCH for excel. http://www.amazon.com/Option-Pricing-Volatility-Excel-VBA-Finance/dp/0471794643/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1222187612&sr=8-1 They are general auto regressive models, i.e. the prediction has some dependency on prior terms, unlike a...

By the way, the scenario I showed with the simple truth table of events and probabilities is just that -- the derivation is based upon each event being assumed independent of each other. In reality, we know there can be autocorrelations in market sequences (especially volatility as witnessed...

Hey Maestro, I always seem to find you on the more interesting threads (at least from my perspective). I wanted to chime in on some of the conversation that has unfolded from my perspective. Firstly, I commented before on Parrondo's Paradox. There was no further discussion. A paper was...

http://www.aovh07.dsl.pipex.com/AppEcon/appecon.htm contains free tool for excel.

This is over the entire existence of S&P500 to present. As I said, you may think the thing to do is fade the extremes here, but not shown on the chart is that the extremes can go well beyond 5 sigma and they tend to cluster (Oct 87 was -22.8 sigma for example). Unless you are betting pure...

If volatility begets volatility, this is not looking good for short term betting in either direction (as volatility is only predictive in magnitude not direction). Many short term traders on both sides are going to get ripped in this chaos.

having worked there many years ago, I can say they make their margins off the cheap high volume stuff, like connectors and cables. You'd be surprised at how many people walk in and you ask, "would you like to buy a tv today?" They throw a watch on the table, and reply, "nah, i need you to...

I'm sure there were also a few financial precogs who sensed something amiss with the subprime CDO packages, who were promptly dismissed as quacks and told to be silent or lose their jobs. There were also some great engineering precogs who noticed an alarming number of pintos exploding, of...

The scatterplot is just a tool used to represent the lorentz attractor. Just like plotting a function on a 2-D graph for example. However, it's a bit more useful to look at interpolated lines between the points (just not sure how to do it in R yet) and how their behavior moves over time...

Great Idea. Thanks. Any idea if there is a package to animate the time steps and or connect dots with lines (like the java example)? I really need to start playing with R more. Also, any good practical reference suggestions on R books for newbies (I am familiar with matlab) would be...

Preferably one that connects points with lines? Excel does a good job in 2-D scatter plots; not 3D. Preferably for windows XP. P.S. An example would be plotting lorentz attractor in 3D space. http://www.ph.biu.ac.il/~rapaport/java-apps/lorenz.html something like this, but where you can...

Don't have a lot of time to explain at the moment, but it has to do with the way returns of different signs compound asymmetrically. To convince yourself, you can try to simulate two different price paths (with pos and neg returns) to get to an equal final price, and then double each...

unless the target was guaranteed to be hit within exactly one day, there is no direct relationship. It is dependent upon the incremental path it took to get there.

Reminds me a bit of the story of LTCM. One of the interesting things I recall from reading lowenstein's narrative, was that at a moment of desperate weakness (they were down something like 50%), LTCM turned to GS for help, and part of the provisions was revealing a large amount of their...

This statement is incorrect. I've already said such a model exists, and another poster already showed a detailed backtest of such a few posts back. Start understanding why or why not it is possible for a start (hint: models can have caveats). I'm not vouching for the poster, but I am making...

possible causes: 1) 1st check your mouse profile under the control panel and make sure the settings look correct (especially the button configuration -- double click speed should be near center, and button configuration should be unselected). 2) If it is wireless, maybe battery going bad...