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  1. johnarb

    Is the crypto winter over?

    Yes, security from that standpoint is great, but it doesn't protect from a 6102 attack, but it's a good balance with the 25% left on the local wallet Very true, every day I worry about this if something happens to me and always do a practice exercise regularly with the wife and review all the...
  2. johnarb

    Is the crypto winter over?

    or increase.... RIA's are not able to buy new products for at least 3 months so the trillions locked up under their management are yet to come to the bitcoin spot ETF's
  3. johnarb

    Is the crypto winter over?

    Good stuff and info, thank you for that! Tai is Vietnamese but I think he goes back and forth between Thailand and Vietnam for their crypto investor group and may own real estate in both countries I don't understand it myself! I blame the JPM, Virtu, Jane Street market making games, they...
  4. johnarb

    Is the crypto winter over?

    Bitcoin supply is inelastic, doesn't matter the demand nor the price, only 6.25 bitcoins every 10 minutes (on average) If bitcoin price goes to $100k tomorrow, the same 900 bitcoins will not increase, if gold goes to $10k/oz tomorrow, there will be more gold being mined per day The bitcoin...
  5. johnarb

    Is the crypto winter over?

    This is very true, I don't know what the price premiums that would be acceptable to both parties. In the past, 10-15 even 20% premium when price was $1,000 or less was nothing, but now, even a 10% premium is $5k and as far as miner premiums of 15% for newly minted bitcoins, I think that has not...
  6. johnarb

    Is the crypto winter over?

    Yes, fully agree with you that this chart only highlights the trend situation at OTC desks, which are deals that have some kind of conditions. I would guess the conditions are imposed by the sellers' (i.e. +10% to +20% above Coinbase price for a block of 1000 or 5,000 or newly mined coins free...
  7. johnarb

    Is the crypto winter over?

    The Twitter thread on Jesse Myers above has interesting comments... we're seeing the data clearly, the daily and weekly ETF's bitcoin purchases are public... and yet, it's like we live inside a bubble that no one else is paying attention to Does everyone else not inside this bubble believe that...
  8. johnarb

    Crypto Macro Trends for 2022

    The bottom was $14.5k.... at $25k, you're giving up 0.8 btc for every 1 btc purchase
  9. johnarb

    Is the crypto winter over?

    It looks like there's a massive sell wall on the $52k level... I think I saw on a youtube video that $52k is a major price level and thus a major resistance on the way up Once the $52k sell wall is gobbled up by the ETF's, perhaps the next resistance level is $58k
  10. johnarb

    Crypto Macro Trends for 2022

    MSTR is a leverage play on bitcoin it utilizes the company's operating profits/FCF, ability to issue debt-convertibles and ability to issue more shares to acquire more bitcoins MSTR is a mature company, something to ponder, they were making $50M/yr in profits before Bitcoin, now, they have $4B...
  11. johnarb

    Is the crypto winter over?

    There has been a lot of demand for years from the clients of the Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan, Blackrock, Fidelity, but the SEC was stopping them by not approving the bitcoin spot etf's The HNW clients were the ones that were pushing hard on Blackrock and friends to get the bitcoin...
  12. johnarb

    Bitcoin Price Thread

    I think btc will go much higher than $70k
  13. johnarb

    Is the crypto winter over?

    When you say the funds, you're referring to Blackrock, Fidelity, Bitwise, et al? They are buying hundreds of millions of $ worth of bitcoins every day, but the money is not coming from them, same with other ETF's like the Q's or SPY Who is putting hundreds of millions of $ to buy bitcoins...
  14. johnarb

    Is the crypto winter over?

    Retail traders are not driving this price move up of $1k almost every day, just look at the google search trend for bitcoin or how to buy bitcoin I have a group chat with some of my friends in crypto who I was begging to buy at least 1 btc during the bear market at low $20-22k and put it away...
  15. johnarb

    Bitcoin Price Thread

    Bitcoin is $52k, first time btc was here in 2021, everyone was celebrating, now, it's just meh, not much interest as shown by low google searches for bitcoin We're all price-anchored to $69k, but I have a feeling mood will still not be as great as in 2021 when it gets there... just a hunch
  16. johnarb

    Bitcoin ETFs had the most successful start in history

    Blackrock is voraciously eating bitcoins every trading session... 100% inflows since launched... same with Fidelity This is unprecedented... prolly nothing
  17. johnarb

    Crypto Macro Trends for 2022

    A milestone update on the MSTR calls options position, target of 15,000% move within 6 months from low to high m2m value of the position [as an aside, 8 days ago, on earnings day, MSTR was down big and reversed to positive for the trading session, I might have seen the position was worth less...
  18. johnarb

    Is the crypto winter over?

    No, not all related to FTX selling GBTC, but the biggest 1-day selling of GBTC was because of FTX, marked the bottom for btc when it went to 38k There are many investors who invested in tax-deferred accounts (i.e. IRA's) and those sold (and could have bought back other bitcoin spot etf's)...
  19. johnarb

    Blockchain is Dangerous Nonsense

    Bitcoin is the least riskiest asset in the whole world, currently Volatile, yes, risky, no Look up the CAGR and Sharpe Ratio of btc in the past 1yr, 3yr, 5yr and 10yr
  20. johnarb

    Crypto Macro Trends for 2022

    Just an update on this MSTR call options position... the m2m price of the position went from ~$8k to $56k in 3 trading sessions and no longer at a loss of 80% but currently in profits m2m The goal to $1M is less than 2000% and still plenty of time
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