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I don't see no "contango"...

I think the moral of the story, for me, is that a lot of these "captain of industry" types have come out and opined on bitcoin, blockchain and what have you... While one can respect their views, given that they have demonstrated some skill at making business decisions, one has to be well aware...

I think at least some of Warren Buffett's alpha can be attributed to him being what's normally described in poker as a "big pot bully". Furthermore, there are all sorts of positive network effects that come with size and scale, which, I guess, in Buffett's case offset the possible negative...

Sadly, even a t-bill isn't strictly speaking risk free these days...

Everything in the world of rates and bonds and such is annualized by convention. Makes things easier for everyone.

Hold on, didn't you start this whole thread describing a specific strategy? In fact, I distinctly remember options involved... That strategy and its variants you subsequently suggested were specific, rather than generic "manipulation by sheer size". As to what I've described as mkt...

Like I said, you've described two different things in this thread. If by "It" you mean "market manipulation designed to affect the settlement price of a security", then it does probably still happen, although it's generally a lot more difficult and dangerous to do nowadays. If by "It" you mean...

You have described a couple of different phenomena in this thread... 1. Correct. 2. It may be illegal, strictly speaking, but it's very hard to prove, so, effectively, it's not illegal. 3. Some amount of window-dressing into month/quarter/year-end probably happens, but this isn't what you were...

I think sle addressed this already... This doesn't work and I am sure you will be able to see why if you just think about it a bit.

How do I "play" this without the options, again?

If the stock is illiquid enough for 50mm to move its price sufficiently, how much liquidity do you think is there in options? Furthermore, how do you think these options are priced?

It is not clear what the effects of the unwind are going to be. There are lots of opinions and lots of uncertainty. One thing is reasonably clear: the recent selloff didn't have anything to do with the start of the balance sheet unwind process.

You also need to make sure to look at total return, rather than just the price (some indices are already in that format, IIRC). Furthermore, as soon as you have a possibility of investing in a different ccy, you need to consider FX risk, etc.

Repo trades come in all shapes and sizes... The money mkt fund industry is one of the biggest users of repo, especially after the reform took effect. Point is that, unlike other rates, there are actual trades and there are lots of them. By definition, this makes the rates obtained from the...

Yes, I'm sure... The repo mkt is an active and liquid one and rates based on actual transactions will be much harder to manipulate.

Lots of other things happening at the same time... Moreover, the Fed's balance sheet actions were well-telegraphed before the spring.

NP

Nah, they ain't one and the same... A UST converts a USD that you have in the present into a USD that you'll have in the future. So if there's more USTs around, all else being equal, it means that there's "present USD" sloshing around.

More supply of USTs, less supply of USD...

Why don't you ask IB about the methodology they use?