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  1. countryBoy641

    Working the inflation trade

    Is Chevron a monster of a stock or what? Everybody says the past 4 decades were hugely deflationary. So CVX had been in a "bear market" since 1982? WTF The "oil majors" were mostly phased out, favoring tech stocks. Which means most money managers had to favor the tech stocks, (e.g. AAPL, and...
  2. countryBoy641

    technical analysis

    If nothing else, you have the correct attitude. Reminds me of a Hedge fund guy, Paul Tudor Jones. Guy is a self made billionaire. He says every day he starts with the attitude: "Everything I have done up to today is a total mistake." Hubris will ruin any investor. That's really the Golden Rule...
  3. countryBoy641

    technical analysis

    as I said "you really have not studied long term charts"
  4. countryBoy641

    Crude Oil - how could anybody not be bullish?

    News flash: All successful traders have "moon predictions". Mr. Suntrader, you need to step up your trading game.
  5. countryBoy641

    technical analysis

    \ Mr. Scat, I know you are a talented trader. But it seems you really have not studied long term charts (Monthly and quarterly) esp. with certain indicators. Fact is, there are tons of TA investors who are "BIG players." They just don't go around bragging about how they did it. That's why Jack...
  6. countryBoy641

    technical analysis

    Sorry but I have to disagree. The big difference between TA and Fundamental Analysis is that ""fundies" are free. Publicly traded companies are required to publish the data. But MOST TA costs $$. There is some free TA, but not much. And that creates the illusion that TA only works short term...
  7. countryBoy641

    Crude Oil - how could anybody not be bullish?

    "Recency bias is a cognitive bias that favors recent events over historic ones; a memory bias. Recency bias gives "greater importance to the most recent event",[1] such as the final lawyer's closing argument a jury hears before being dismissed to deliberate." Wiki I just saw a guy on youtube...
  8. countryBoy641

    $SILVER making a breakout bid

    12 years weekly 40 years Monthly
  9. countryBoy641

    Commodity Prices

    If bitcoin is a commodity, what do you do with it? Commodities have historical uses. So what doe people do with bicoin?
  10. countryBoy641

    Commodity Prices

    Anecdotally, WWII in Europe unofficially ended on D-Day. German officers and troops were shocked that the Allies brought only a Mechanized Army. No Horses were on the landing beaches. The Germans knew that morning that all was lost. This precipitated the attempted Staufenberg assassination of...
  11. countryBoy641

    Welcome to the 21st Century America!

    The American Banking system didn't roll over and die on its own. A few years ago, I was standing in line to buy a couple of movie tickets. The people in front of me couldn't find a Visa card that would take another $24 purchase. Can't blame that on the government.
  12. countryBoy641

    Commodity Prices

    The rule of thumb (I think) used to be 1) that countries that export natural resources will benefit from rising inflation. 2) but countries with large debt service (e.g. $31 trillion U.S.) are at least equally handicapped by the size of the debt service (as the inflation increases). It used to...
  13. countryBoy641

    How do you explain US exceptionalism over the last 75 years?

    100 years of SPX *** These securities databases are populated by CUSIP number. But the CUSIP system was not in place until late 1970s. Prices older than that had to be added by hand.
  14. countryBoy641

    Funny podcast with a trader who blew > 50 accounts

    I listened about 15 minutes, Reminds me of the FTX guy, so cool and collected while there was devastation all around him. "Bernie Madoff" style. And feelings should have NOTHING to do with trading.
  15. countryBoy641

    Boomers Got Hooked on Stocks. Now They Can’t Let Go.

    I think that's only for "real property", not securities. But I'm no CPA, who would know for sure.
  16. countryBoy641

    Boomers Got Hooked on Stocks. Now They Can’t Let Go.

    I don't know who is the most intelligent. But the $SPX is not the hot rocket it used to be. Some commodities are pounding the snot out of the SPX, on performance. My performance measures started August 2020, which is when it bought my positions. But I have a rule: Don't go long anything that is...
  17. countryBoy641

    IRS gets major power to request private tax info after Supreme Court decision

    It:'s the delinquent taxpayers that really drive the IRS nuts. In many cases, whatever profits there were, are no longer collectable. Presumably, many of these are folks who can't step away from the " one armed bandit". Does that ring a bell with anybody here? Also results in 1) "Estimated Tax...
  18. countryBoy641

    Taxes on Treasuries in Secondary Market?

    If you are paying a premium, you are getting a lower yield. That's how ALL yields are calculated. Also: makes no difference, whether T-Bills are bought at auction (Primary Market), or buy them on the secondary market. In other words, the "dated date" on a Treasury makes no difference. All the...
  19. countryBoy641

    Rally: Trade it or fade it?

    Although many people could make big $$$ trading from the long side here, I'm too old and weary to try. Markets are "pendular". That means they go in one direction, and then another. I take my cue from the bond market. My longs are in the AGs and silver. GTLA
  20. countryBoy641

    Sugar futures

    Good points about the sources of "sugar". I didn't know about those markets. Here, in the U.S. consumers do not have any prejudice about the sources of sugar. Sugar beets or sugar cane. All the same as it is the delivered commodity. So sugar is fungible, domestically.
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