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  1. J

    trend following delusion shattered

    For future reference, there is an absolutely fascinating divergence in the way the indices behaved pre-announcement, especially the RUT. I am sure it means something, haha! Higher rates are good for small companies?
  2. J

    trend following delusion shattered

    Jack. For once I can't disagree with anything you said. But being a contrarian I doubt that the market will respond today with the whipsaw that has characterized recent rate hikes, if only because we have come to expect it. I don't have access to my charting today or I would pull up examples...
  3. J

    trend following delusion shattered

    Jack. My reasoning is that Greenie hates bubbles, and we are in the midst of a major bubboil. The euro failed to make a lower low. Oil broke its previous high. Intermediate term rates have crept up far more than one would expect based on a quarter point and are killing bond funds. We are...
  4. J

    trend following delusion shattered

    Odd. I am in full-bore outrageous prediction mode. If I am wrong, everybody already knew I was an idiot. If I am right, I become an instant clairvoyant guru. Such gurus have no need to justify themselves with JackaNaperian logic. Besides, the market went up after the last FOMC-up following the...
  5. J

    trend following delusion shattered

    Jack. I wouldn't be so confident about predicting that ho-hum reaction pattern if I were you. FVX and TNX have been creeping up this morning. The fix may be in. I would not be surprised to see half a percent.
  6. J

    trend following delusion shattered

    Banjo. IMO that arbitrage site is disinformation. Why else would it be free? Kinda sorta maybe just a little bit like ET?
  7. J

    trend following delusion shattered

    Banjo. A little sarcasm there, eh? I wasn't denying the reality of program trading, only asserting that it doesn't work the way that site says it does. At least for NQ.
  8. J

    trend following delusion shattered

    Banjo. Thanks for that link. I hope everybody I am trading NQ against believes it.
  9. J

    Old Possum's Book of Practical Charts

    Odd. I am a decrepit senile garrulous old man, not unlike Jack, only 13 years younger. Therefore I don't know anything you don't know. I published my travels with Jack last year here under several of my sixteen other aliases. I discovered what worked (at least for me) and improved it for NQ...
  10. J

    Old Possum's Book of Practical Charts

    There being an FO Mockit C meeting today, my unconscious subconscious found itself singing Gilbert and Sullivan in the shower: "Big black block! Short sharp shock!" ("The Mikado") That immediately reminded me of John Adams' "The Chairman Dances" from "Nixon in China". Fancy Greenspun...
  11. J

    Old Possum's Book of Practical Charts

    The joy of ET is that if you read it closely you will find out what doesn't work. Maybe saves you some time. Lets you look for cheese where there aren't holes.
  12. J

    Old Possum's Book of Practical Charts

    Odd. Aucune idee. I am the Sgt. Schultz of individual stocks. Trading them is like bending over in the shower in the lockup. But I am with you on simplicity. My one minute chart has nothing on it but volume and VWAP. As I said elsewhere, market movement is all about excuses. It's not like value...
  13. J

    Old Possum's Book of Practical Charts

    BTW, you see rat(e)s slowly drifting up overnight. ("Who? Me?"). Maybe an FOMC shocker tomorrow?
  14. J

    Old Possum's Book of Practical Charts

    You have seen the quality of my NQ trading, and you ask me that? I quit trading individual stocks four years ago after I got screwed one too many times by insider shenanigans. That was about the same time that a paradigm shift occurred and idiots could no longer reliably make money. I think I...
  15. J

    Old Possum's Book of Practical Charts

    I will add one more little drollerie for the amusement of Nkhoi, ET's other resident insomniac (although I doubt that he is a drunk, I think he surfs porn then). On those increasingly rare days when I can trade (Work is such a drag. Why do clients keep asking me back? Don't they know I have...
  16. J

    Old Possum's Book of Practical Charts

    I just saw the most amazing thing. When I wake up in the middle of the night (do you think maybe I drink too much, Doc?), I put myself back to sleep by watching NQ tick. (I also read ET for the same reason.) Who trades NQ then, and why? Qui sait. Anyway, you can get mighty bored and sleepy...
  17. J

    Old Possum's Book of Practical Charts

    If you believe in Old Saint Jack, and I do, most fervently, at least in re channels, this chart does not look good for us gold bugs (gold bugs bunny?). My apologies to those of you not old enough to remember what an Old Gold is. P.S.: Can you believe that the chart on the initial post here...
  18. J

    trend following delusion shattered

    You calibrated yourself with this one, Sinestra: "4. At the moment the spread between the cash and futures contract hits a threshold level, P =>d, and for that reason, arbitrageurs try to capture that profit by excuting program trades." Be precise, or shut it.
  19. J

    trend following delusion shattered

    Your pathetically hobbled "individual trader" has one thing going for him against the big bad "bigger players". That is the ability to trade a totally wild-assed idea that would get an institutional trader fired. "Why did you make that trade?" "Beats the shit out of me! I just liked it! Plus my...
  20. J

    Old Possum's Book of Practical Charts

    OMG! The value of my gold is depreciating! Just for abusement I charted the price of a barrel of oil in gold, attached. I think the price history of good CA champagnes looks like that, too, which is MY measure of inflation.
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