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While I might not agree with you, I can buy your argument on what you consider an uptrend... It is not just a single dumb indicator, bt some thought and guess. Fair enough.... Christian

I would agree, except you are missing one thing. The multiplier. It just happens that the multipliers happen to be a 100 on both. Though I would be careful about calculating the other greeks this way since what you are doing is trying to equate absolute value. From the top of my head I...

I live in Europe and while I would like to agree with your idea that you wake up a noon there are issues. Namely during the week your social life is SHOT! I don't mean just a bit, I mean completely shot since you are awake and at the market until 22:00. And if you don't work due to social...

You mean if I run a back test and it shows that I will make 200% per month that I will not make 200% per month going forward? Ahhh.... now you ruined my day and my right to make lots and lots of money... ;) Seriously though, I completely agree with you a back test has to be taken with a...

If possible please avoid March 24 to 26. I will be in London on business. Christian

Ok so when do we meet? I might be able to convince a fixed income trader friend to come along. Christian

Gambling I call it...

I only had to wait, oh 37 minutes before the first outage occurred in the American exchanges... http://www.happyasahippo.com/images/exchangeproblems.jpg

If we are going to mince words I was somewhat incorrect in the initial phrasing, which I clarified later. I clarified that I regularly get messages like "exchange A will not be able to trade products A to J". I did not say hours at a time, and I do see these messages very very often. The reason...

I never said that a backtest ensures money. What I said was to backtest to see what works and does not work. A back test will show you what your strategy does in the big picture sense. It is up to you to interpret those results. Statistics never predict they tell you what has happened, and...

Depending on when in March I would be willing to go... Christian

Do some research on a topic called Monte-Carlo. Be careful though. You can't get more "accurate" since you don't know what the market does or says. Market replay is not forward testing. It is back testing. Forward testing is when you run your strategy while the market is running. The idea...

One answer... Did you back test this? I can understand your premise, but if I remember there were times when it seemed like a great time to sell vol only to watch it spike to absurd levels. My point is that you are not wrong, just back test it to figure out what works and does not work.

I completely agree and sent my political party my views! I said no GERMAN money goes to Greece, let them figure it out. Or they will not get my vote in the next election.

Sorry, but you are wrong here. Let me explain: Let's say the euro-zone does indeed weaken and nobody wants to hold euros (outside of the eurozone members). When Germany sells something to say the US, they will get dollars. These dollars are reserves for Germany. With a weakening euro those...

What is the perception? The Euro will become weak? The EU zone will break up? That is the perception outside, but inside the EU they will not care. To get a complete understanding of what I am getting at. Go to news.google.com. Look at the US, and UK articles regarding Greece. Then...

The problem here is that Greece has no economic interest for the EU. If Greece defaults the Euro plummets... That is the "common sense", yet I have been harping time and time again that the EU nations would love for the currency to collapse. What people don't realize is that the EU zone is...

The broker is not going to trade something, unless they have a local bid. And if you are trading anything of volume it means you can't trade. Regarding the comment of products going offline, and not exchanges, well it is the same thing. If you are trading say NDX, and NDX goes offline the...

Clear uptrend? Now that is asking for trouble. There is no such thing as a clear uptrend. You see a clear uptrend after the fact... To say we are in consolidation is I would say wrong. We are in the "I have no freaken clue" phase. It could go up really fast, or could go down really fast. Or...

Try BATS, PHLX, CBOE, etc... I use IB and I get these messages all the time. What happens is that exchanges say, "You can't trade product X, from A to J" You wait, and then you trade again. Sometimes even your broker can't trade. These outages are usually a few minutes, sometimes a half hour...