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I don't know enough about "marketsurfer" and his IQ to determine whether or not he indeed is a moron. Most people on ET are rather bright, at least when compared with the general public. Yes, I said it. I think it is true. I think the more critical question is: Is MS a jerk? People are...

I read the Connors piece. I'm not talking about buying new 10 day highs. I tested that years ago--in short-term trading, that was a loser. Then again, if one NEVER bought new ten-day highs, then you'd never catch a bull market. For long-term trends, I would prefer buying new 25 day highs...

Before you ask me questions, please answer the one I already posed: What is VN's Sharpe? This is important info to back up your assertion that VN is a "great trader". Anyone can make big returns by taking on big risk. But good traders make respectable returns with low risk (i.e. volatility of...

Trading natural gas is not for the faint of heart. For sure. It is the most volatile commodity on American markets. 5% moves in a day are not uncommon. According to some, natural gas right now is cheap, compared to crude. Sometimes when it gets really cheap, I like to buy ng and sell...

Of course the market was oversold on Monday. It was oversold Friday, and Thursday. etc. But that doesn't mean you make predictions or buy into a sharp decline. You wait until prices tick up, and then you buy aggressively once it appears all is clear.

You have absolutely NO way of knowing whether or not the crisis that led to VN's blowing up is a "once in a lifetime" thing. As for drawdowns, I would hang it up if I suffered a 29% one in a month. I would be ashamed and would stop trading until I figured out what was wrong with me. I...

I live in Elizabeth City.

Are you finished now?

Who's flaming VN for being bullish? Not me--I bot S&P Sept futures as 1240 and Nas at 1551. I am all for making money, and I don't fault anyone for trying to the same. Rather, he is being taken to task for his alleged dishonesty (making a prediction for a market rise on Monday and then...

What is his Sharpe ratio?

Reckoner has asserted throughout that VN is a "great trader" yet has not supported this assertion with evidence. Instead he has resorted to ad hom, appeals to authority, among other logical fallacies. Answer me this, Reckoner: How can a trader who (1) blew through all of his capital (and...

Ditto. I think one more failed rally will get some selling from long-term trend followers.

Nice post, Archimedes. As a humanities Ph.D. I especially liked the classical references. I have seen Sun Tzu's THE ART OF WAR applied to trading. I would personally recommend Aristotle's works on logic instead. Good luck to all (including VN acolytes). :-)

Yes, we're all "jealous" of his track record. Lost it all (and more) once, and then dropped almost 30% in May. Ironically, on his website VN reviews a book "How to Become a Con Artist." If it is true that he make a bold prediction, and then had the erroneous forecast removed from the site...

Good traders do not make predictions of what may come, just observations of what is happening. They know that no one knows the future, so why bother with predicting. Just observe what the market is doing, and then hop on the trend. In case the market turns against your position, have a...

Got it. Am I right in assuming that someone who wants to trade vol should probably avoid the VIX options/futures, and that these products are more for hedging than speculating?

Phil, Could you explain why the 15 calls were trading only for 4.3 when the VIX is well over 20 (22.54 as I write)? Is this an indication that the market feels strongly that at August expiration the VIX will be around 19.3 (15 strike plus the 4.3 you sold them for)? Btw, I have absolutely...

Oh. be nice.:-)

Bottom pickers are safe as long as they have stops in case they're wrong. Volente made a good trade--he was flexible enough to know that the rally was fizzling, so he got the *%&^ out of there. As for me, I am not buying anything bull ES until ES (September) hits 1248, and anything bull NQ...

ES options actually have pretty good liquidity. The spreads are a bit rich, though they are better than they used to be.