Search results

To answer sle's comments, 1. first calculate std dev using stdev() function in excel on your daily return; 2. divide your max dd by std dev. In mac's defense, I understand some successful traders have found a niche and do not want to disclose it since other traders can potentially crowd...

recovery started +2K

-10900 2nd week of sep. not the best week ever :)

i work full time, trade full time, and garden/raise chicken part time.

http://www.uic.edu/classes/actg/actg516rtr/Readings/Financial-Economics/Technical-Analysis/Foundations%20of%20Technical%20AnalysisComputational%20Algorithms,Statistical%20Inference.pdf two of the smartest professors. still do not do TA justice in my view.

A correctly done TA based on reading PA cannot be tested. The best test is your account PnL. If it is so easy then even an economics/finance professor can do it :)

If you run a large fund, or have longer horizon, FA helps you to manage large amount of money. If you have less than 8 figure, trading technically offers the best risk-reward ratio. My sharpe has been 3 or higher for the last 3 years. There is NO way I can do that if I trade fundamentally. Of...

As I explained earlier, simple TA rule does not work. But TA helps you to read market. I am not surprised by your reaction since I have the same bias when I started trading 3.5 years ago. Econometric analysis using price and volume data to me is just TA. Momentum factor for example is proof...

Have you ever successfully traded before? You do not sound like a trader. You sound more like a fund manager. There are many ways to interpret the same economic news and the price reaction reflects the dominant view in the market, relative to market expectation before news announcement or...

coming from an academic background, i totally understood why academic research failed to find TA rule that works. TA works in a context. 80-90% of time FA does not work. however there are those 10-20% of time traders have an edge based on TA. if you pool all data you will probably find...

1st week of sep. back to work. got distracted by lots of things. +1500 for a short week. hopefully actions are coming back in the mkt.

any thoughts on CTS T4? i believe they also have a spreader.

I mean daily return. I am just giving you an example. A 0.2 mean/std ratio, or sharpe ratio, on a daily basis is pretty common I believe among traders.

it is difficult to know the odds even after setting target and stop. so it is hard to apply kelly before a trade. here is my solution. trade small to get comfortable. after a while, if your performance stabilizes, you can calculate daily mean and daily standard deviation. your correct kelly...

substance is in the eyes of beholders. but it is hard to know what to look for if you do not have the expertise to judge. no one is going to bring a detailed profitable trading plan to you on a plate.

another great and honest post by sle. when you earn time decay, you pay in negative skewness. so if you have a large account bal buffer, and net sell vol for credit, you prob will come ahead over time. limiting losses to play the game for another day is the key. of course if you have a good...

finally aug is over. hopefully sep will bring more actions. +2700

if you do not do 10K future contracts, IB is pretty competitive. their way of ruthlessly enforcing margin requirement - sometime not exactly correctly - makes me feel safe about the firm and my money.

no. i will these type of things as small costs of doing business. you are trading off some glitches with financial stability.

yeah. on both sides.