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I agree with swing trading you have to be selective and be patient, I am slowing getting better at this. Hence my attempt to develop a metric to slow me down or get me more aggressive (see my post a few pages back).

I follow the MRCI recommendations so the typical stuff, calendar spreads in C, W, S, SM and some intercommodity spreads including KW and crushes. I tried MW but the slippage was too much to bear :) For example into this mornings USDA report I'm holding CH/U and SMU/BOU.

It is interesting that this is the second or third time that the markets have become extreme since I've been learning to trade spreads and for most of the spreads that I'm trading/watching the volatility is no different than periods of normal market volatility, at least on an end-of-day basis...

Another way to think about it is that if you assume my 2.5 years of data I used to generate the performance graph is representative of seasonal spreads in general, then the graph is proof that they are cyclical. There are of course assumptions that I made and MRCI makes implicit in the process...

The y-axis is based on the performance of recommendations that were closed on each date. A trade closed at a loss or stopped out will push the averages down, a trade that trends well will push them up. Because it is only using completed trades it is a bit of a lagging indicator, at some point...

I use very simple TA in order to wait until the spreads shows some strength, then pick an entry/exit strategy and wait for the entry strategy to be triggered. For example I want to see a down trendline broken, then put in 1 or 2 higher highs before I enter. I also watch RSI to help the timing...

I have enjoyed reading through this thread so I appreciate the tone and willingness to share ideas. I don't have the same experience or skill levels as others, but have noticed that the seasonal spreads that I primarily focus on can be cyclical in terms of whether they are "working" or not...

I use MRCI to screen most of my trades and have actually already entered this spread on a the breakout above 8.0. My typical strategy for these seasonal spreads is very similar to drm7's strategy above. In this particular case I was out quickly as I had my profit target pretty conservative (I...

Watching the July spread approach even. I am not a fundamental trader but a small amount of internet research suggests that a couple of factors may be causing the BO to substantially outperform: 1) DDGs which I know even less about than soybeans! :) and 2) strength in vegetable oils in general...

Stay away from many of the FX brokers, particularly the ones that make a market for you to trade. The stop running is crazzzzzzzy! I'd suggest maybe FX futs but the margin reqts are pretty high, or possibly IB as they aggregate cash FX bid/asks from several large firms.

Local, I assume you mean to buy k and sell n as the carry is @ 80%. I am pretty new to the ags and the literature I can find usually says this is major resistance point, but it seems like they are regularly exceed 80% and even 100% in the wheat and beans. For example wK/H is at 117%. Is...

Local, I was long a KW/W for most of the second half of last year (one of my best wins for the year) but closed out my March spread around the first of the year thinking that the March spread 30+ year high is @ 90. The Dec spread also is close to the 30 yr high. May, July are not nearly as...

I've been watching this spread for a few days. The seasonality as you say is good this time of year, and historically the premium doesn't spend much time on the oil side, so your downside risk is lower down here. So if I start to see strength technically, I'm looking to go long. :D

I've been working on applying technical analysis as a entry/exit filter; mostly pretty basic stuff like support/resistance, breakouts, breakdowns, etc. Also looking to get a feel for RSI and had some success here, but not developed yet into a full "system". I've tended to have more success in...

LOL, I had to look up glyphosate, that's greek to me..... Unfortunately I am a swing trader only, fundamentals are latin to me. The seasonals point up from here, but so far the spread is not responding. So for a 3 to 5 year play you're asking the wrong person.:D

The M/J hog spread is bouncing up today. A couple of short term bullish divergences with the RSI are giving me optimism on my longs here. Any comments?

Look at say N/H it moves a couple of points per month. Not bad possibilities compared to the margin requirements. Is it worth it? Yes. Just watch the carry here.

Hi all, I have been trading MRCI since January this year and of course it has been an up and down year. Trades in the last 2 to 3 months have been performing poorly and are regularly getting stopped out at a loss. I have been working to improve my entries and exits in order to both get in...

I am also a newbie to carrying costs but did find some info out there by googling. If I remember correctly storage and insurance were limited by the CME and Minn exchange. But it took a while to find the limits, I had to search their sites and found them in some of their docs. I also found...

Currently full carry is 31 to 32. If you use 80% of carry as a high limit then the high end of the trade would be around 25 at today's prices. So I expect higher % carry; as Rtrader suggests, there is likely to be a lot supply.