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I agree. Bear markets take time to develop, because of the natural bullish bias of the participants. That is why it is safer to take profits regularly, in order to short higher and/or buy puts at a better price. There were only 7 weeks since the start of the year! Road will be long in 2016...

HS, WHAT A DAY!!!! Amazing volatility, my out of the money put multiplied by 2.5 in less than 48 hours !!! I took my profit, I don't want to lose with a new new new new bear market rebound. I hope you made a lot too ! But as usual : don't be too greedy. Cut at least half, take some profits! We...

These are long term cycles. So yes, probably, for many people, they would not know during their career a new golden age. But since the stock exchange was created, there were many golden age for investors / traders. History doesn't repeat but it does rhyme. Mark Twain CM

I guess you are wrong ! An elite trader is a good sniper. He doesn't "guess, trust, believe, imagine, feel " He observes, chooses his target, calculates, shoots adequately, changes his strategy if it doesn't work. And do it again tomorrow. CM

HS, good job! I agree, there are some divergences in the US indexes, we can have some doubt, the game would be too easy if not. But be sure everything should go in the same direction. And it comes closer and closer, we need to be patient. What could be the triggers? NASDAQ below 4000 SP below...

Well, you are closer to the Elite than vast majority of people here. Focus, discipline, I will add understanding market action, these are the basics that people don't want to apply: too much work. CM

It was, it is, it will be S&D. Sure some players can push prices for minutes, chasing stops. But hours or days? Nope. By the past, you could corner a market for days / months. Nowadays? No way. I love the game AND I love the players. No players, no game. No good players, no challenge. No bad...

Ahah thanks, but I don't have to wait a 25% correction in any market to know if it is bear or not. Even Charles Dow 100 years ago explained how to recognize a bear market well before the bottom. CM

There is a huge gap between a belief and market reaction. 1 we are in a bear market so don't expect too much upside. 2 volumes are still weak during rebounds. 3 why would dealers push price now rather than 1 week ago? 1 month ago ? 4 dealers are not the markets. Markets cannot be pushed...

Example of today's trade : short NQH6 @4162, stop loss @4177. No emotion. Low risk. High reward if I am right. CM

Romik, I used to be like you. When I was in doubt, my guts told me how to react. I am an instinctive guy, and it helped me a lot of time. But gut feeling is not an edge in financial markets, because if markets are volatil, you interpret them with emotions and don't let the markets tell you what...

Yes, you are right, DJIA was close to the Apocalypse @15 500. What does it tell us ? Next time, it is cooked. Next support is @14 200 !! (2007 high). Yes, 14 200 ! No real support before. How many resistances ? Multiples : 16 510 / 16 600 / 16 900 / 17 200 etc. No interest to take the last...

Look at a classic bollinger graph of E50. (I got other graphs that tell the same story). Every time we go the median => down. History could repeat again this time if we don't go (fast) above 2900. IMO Game is over in Euro equities, and in the US too. Forget SP 1955. CM

Totally right. During my career, I saw many confident kamikazes, most are dead. But if you got a real edge, you are confident for good reasons. Btw, probabilities are low that we see SP @ 1955 for the coming days. We are in a BEAR market, not a bull market, and bear market rallies are usually...

Too many "perhaps". Traders don't guess or wish. They observe, analyze, make scenarios and act accordingly. CM

Man, seriously, read or reread Market Wizards. You ll have an answer to your noobish question. But after so many years of "trading" (marketing would be more appropriated), if you don't have the answer, just quit. CM

Right, today. Paulson made 1 good year in his entire career, by finding an enough dumb company to take an insane bet. 16 Billion ? Bill Gross used to manage more than 200 billion, less than 1 billion today. Bill Miller 30 billion, less than 500 millions. Ego kills. King for a day, fool for a...

HS, I agree, this is still bear. Be ready to short this week, or beginning of next week, follow the NASDAQ. If it goes above 4100, don t fight, wait 4200 or close ( strong sell). Next leg down should be ugly. Best strat I think is to buy out of the money put, half February (expiration end of...

Shorting Gold is a ST bet. I would rather do the opposite. Be long and hedge for small corrections like the small one of these last days. Remember, Paulson aka mister copycat lost his shirt being long Gold all the way down. This is a strong buy signal! CM

Right, except that I was up +200% with Biotech sector since 2010, so I was not a permabear. For a trader, your yesterday's love story is your tomorrow's nightmare in the markets if you are not flexible. Dont fall in love with your trades. CM