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Here's a standard ES long regression trade: 7/29/15 - Long 2089 4:30 US 500 @ 9:23 for $45/spread. Rationale: 1. Use regression channels, a lot like bollinger bands in trends to get long the ES, it's pretty straightforward and has been the most consistently solid trade on Nadex. 2. Only...

I've been watching the daily bulletins' volume levels on nadex the past 6 months...it's still on an upward trend. We can actually trade corn now as it's liquid enough, couldn't do that 6 months ago...

Here's an example of an intermarket correlation trade on Nadex: 7/27/2015 - 7:51 am - Long USDCAD expiry on 7/27 @ 3 pm Rationale: 1. Crude oil has been tanking all night (and for the past several days/months)...clear trend down. USDCAD has a very strong negative correlation with Crude...

Alright so essentially what I've noticed is people who trade exclusively technically, generally are not doing very well. It's also shown by the Hedge Fund Wizards books that the majority of macro traders are a mix of fundamental, technical, and sentiment. Meanwhile, if you go onto, say...

Hey, Currently long Molycorp calls (which hasn't been going good and will discuss below the rationale, mistakes etc.) and am back under $2k in the account. Lol...so goes leverage I guess. Anyways, I've been trading Nadex the last 6 months since the risk controls are much more versatile. I'd...

Alright, here's the end of week update. Really quiet week for my account and now I literally have no positions, so most of this will focus on what to do next week. 1. Didn't roll CHK Check. See attached. CHK had a burst to the upside and my option was to roll it 1-2 weeks out, it seemse like...

Hey Longthewings, A couple reasons, but note that I've not done back-spreads before so that's reason #1 lol 1. It's not a 60%, high RR trade (if those actually exist.) I used to do higher RR spreads in these scenarios but am trying to find something better. 2. Should the price not move up...

Theoretical YHOO trade - 12/16/2014 Background: Someone I'm trading with came up with this idea. YHOO is at 49.82 @ close. Assume it's around the same price on the open tomorrow. See attached, we have two options, buy the 30-day spread or buy the 1-week spread (and roll the 1 week spread...

Sketchy trade of the month...CHK 12/15/2014 expiration: December 20 Bought the 18 sold the 16 put for ~400 debit. See attached, executed around 10:30am EST 1. CHK is extremely weak, has pulled back more than it has in ~20 days since it gapped down originally. Meh. See (2) below. 2. CHK RR...

Here are some stocks with weeklies coming into Monday, all high IV: Uptrends: FDX WMT BBY NEUTRAL: JPM AGU ORCL POT GPRO DOWNTRENDS: IBM T LNG CHK HAL NOTE: Many very weak, high IV energy stocks right now but if there's a strong rally these otherwise solid companies have a risk of...

Hey Longthewings, The short answer is spreads don't much benefit from vol increases (even the debit spreads here), but the delegging of spreads absolutely does. Here's my rationale: 1. About 1/3 to 1/2 my positions are debit spreads. They could be standard debit spreads (TLT) or debit spreads...

So let's talk about the potential VIX puts, should the VIX get above 25 next week. Note that there's a good chance this doesn't even happen, and my absolute paramater is that VIX gets above 25 or I don't take the trade. This is based on the prior VIX spike going to about 30 and then crashing...

Summary for the week - 12/13. very solid week, both in terms of performance and executing good trades. I definitely made a few mistakes though (see below) in trade structures. See attached for where I currently am at in positions pnl etc. Positions: 1. VIX - I had originally planned to roll...

GG de-leg Friday 12/12/2014 12/12/2014 20:14:43Bought 2 GG Dec 20 2014 18.5 Put @ 0.39 -87.50 Ok so I delegged half the GG position posted earlier. I am now long 4 puts and short 2 lower puts for a ratio spread or whatever you want to call it. This gives me more exposure to the downside in a...

TWTR current and aftermath 09/19/2014 18:07:54Sold 1 TWTR Sep 20 2014 36.0 Call @ 14.3 1,421.23 10/07/2014 15:19:44Bought 1 TWTR Nov 22 2014 52.5 Call @ 5.75 10/10/2014 15:25:37Sold 1 TWTR Nov 22 2014 52.5 Call @ 4.35 11/26/2014 15:53:36Bought 2 TWTR Dec 20 2014 40.5 Call @ 1.72 -353.50...

TWTR add (2) - 8/18/2014 08/18/2014 18:31:16Bought 1 TWTR Dec 20 2014 43.0 Call @ 6.15 -623.73 TWTR is now going substantially in my direction after a positive response to earnings, has been accumulating around 40-44 for around a month. Rationale: 1. Recall that TWTR can be an explosive...

TWTR spread (add) - 6/26 06/26/2014 16:55:05Sold 2 TWTR Jul 19 2014 45.0 Call @ 0.47 93.94 06/26/2014 16:55:05Bought 2 TWTR Jul 19 2014 40.0 Call @ 2.22 -455.00 Spread w/ about a 2:1 RR 40/45 calls to add to a working position in TWTR. Rationale: 1. TWTR continues to grind up at a steady...

TWTR Chronology 06/23/2014 14:54:43Bought 1 TWTR Sep 20 2014 36.0 Call @ 5.7 -578.73 Overall I'm about flat on TWTR despite several spreads/adds to it as it was grinding up (currently grinding down lol). Entry trade rationale: 1. TWTR could emulate FB post-IPO. It stages a sharp rally, drops...

GG trade - 12/8/2014, potentially delegging to puts tomorrow. 12/08/2014 15:59:40Bought 4 GG Dec 20 2014 20.5 Put @ 1.43 -586.05 12/08/2014 15:59:40Sold 4 GG Dec 20 2014 18.5 Put @ 0.33 131.89 Entered this trade after a pretty standard pullback in the downtrend. On the 8th, price gapped...

Here's where I currently stand, see attached image. Would appreciate any input on the greeks or the way I'm looking at my net portfolio, as this has been a weak point in performance in the past. 1. First off, I am almost delta neutral according to greeks here. This is outrageously misleading. I...