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I got whacked for 6 percent. I imagine this will cascade for a few days. I hate this part.

LOL :D Too true.

I remember thinking exactly the opposite in 1998. Oops. Regards, Laz

From Soros' book 'The Alchemy of Finance'.. He basically looks for self-reinforcing cycles which he calls 'reflexivity', and is essentially a feedback loop. ...For a long time the dollar got stronger because of foreign investor inflows to purchase stocks, and in turn the rates of return on...

"Lord, make me chaste, but not yet" --St. Augustine The US may want a weaker dollar, but it's not in any sovereign's best interest for the dollar to fall off a cliff. It's been 'managed down' for a long time now. Trying to stave off Soros' 'reflexivity' is funny, in an existential sense...

There aren't unified quotes from vendor to vendor because it's the interbank market-- there's no 'exchange' to get quotes from. My understanding is that Esignal's forex quotes are a good benchmark. The other important thing to remember is that you're not trading against the world, your...

heating degree days and cooling degree days... Its a way for weather sensitive businesses to hedge (amusement park companies, power/gas/heating oil utilities). That's about all I know about it. Regards, Laz

FWIW, I backtested this over several months (10:30) pivot, and there seemed to be some edge (even without support levels-- I just sold short if it was higher than yesterday's close and went long if it was below, with a trailing stop). Erm. I mean, "Nothing to see here. Move along."...

Girlpower, I don't know what kind of testing software you're using, but have you tried using slope of the regression line of highs & lows for the last N periods in a higher timeframe to define boxes and triangles? I've attached a chart that's a start in that direction 'Is Horizontal...

Next week will be really critical. If it holds 375ish, I think the rally will continue-- really depends on whether the premiums for physical in India and China hold up. Regards, laz

After messing with NN's off and on for a few years (Neuroshell), I'll say this: You are unlikely to develop something profitable. After awhile it becomes clear that the _profitable_ non-institutional users of NN have some success with trading first (with the exception that proves the rule...

Then you just want a rolling N period sum of volume. That shouldn't be hard to implement in almost any backtesting platform. --laz

When I build a system that's almost okay, but gets whacked on commissions, I start cutting out periods of the day (most often lunch) and work from there. Also, if it's some sort of xover system (no matter what the indicator) I'll try smoothing it with something fast (TEMA, or JMA). Sometimes...

I think today was options expirations on the oct contract. There were a buttload of calls written @ 390 (like 7500 contracts or something), and thats why it had to be pushed down today. Normally, I would expect a pretty dramatic selloff from here, but the physical market has been so strong...

Congratulations on your windfall. Pay your tuition bill. Buy a nice, thoughtful gift for your parents. Depending on which region of the country you live in, consider buying yourself a small condo to live in while you go to school, and telling your 'rents you want to be on your own...

forgot to attach

Thank you both for your very constructive posts. Funky: Thanks for reminding me about pivot #'s and times. I added the #'s to the chart today, and they were instructive. Your commentary on the trades seems spot-on, although I have a couple of questions: Trade #4 is right on top of a...

http://www.ananova.com/news/story/sm_822534.html?menu=news.quirkies has a picture of the ad. awesome.

Neuroshell.. I can build indicators and test ideas with it faster than anything else. Right now I'm just trying to train the neural net in my head, so I haven't been doing much except experimentation with the nets. regards, laz

what you have is a time series with entries, of types 'long' and short'. You might have to do this by hand (or try some boolean logic in an excel spreadsheet), and code each buy and sell as "1" and "-1" respectively, so that you end up with two columns 'time/date' and 'entry' or whatever you...