Magic voodoo juice

L

laziz314159

Having whacked my account by 30% trying to trade ES with the SOMP method, I remembered a chat session with a YM trader (Dauphine something-or-other?) and decided to try something new.

My ES problems were entirely typical: hesitation and overtrading. Not that those will magically go away trading a different instrument, but it is a way to hit t

I've done a lot of searching for the 'magic voodoo juice'. Of course, there isn't any, but I've learned a lot on the way to being poorer (in my short term funds-- I'm still doing OK on the LT stuff).

Anyway, I started messing around with TICK over the weekend and came up with a chart that makes sense to me in relation to the YM's movements.

Generally, buy a lower tick bb violation, sell the upper, exit with a loose time stop (I enter bracketed orders with 9pt stop loss, 25pt target, I ratchet down the target if it's not going anywhere. Still working on ratcheting down the stop early-- finally figured out I don't have the discipline for mental stops)

Today was my first day trading the method..

9 trades
4 winners, 5 losers
+13 pts

chart attached..

here's a log of the trades, and sometimes my thoughts in between:

9:40 bbtick violation long
9:49 scaredycat exit +11
missed divergence play @ 10:14
10:28 divergence does this lower tick high count? or is it only sequentials?
10:30 stopped out -9

I think it's only sequentials, because tick is roughly normalized to begin with, and

price is not.

maybe waiting isn't such a bad idea.. tick seems to lead by 2 min..

actually, it was a correct divergence (bb% was lower). bad entry. still a marginal trade for me right now.


10:54 divergence (long) widened stop, shouldn't have. 9508
11:01 stopped out -14 9492

11:47 long bbtick violation 9474
12:10 profit stopped out +23 9499

12:50 short bbtick violation (should ahve waited for turnover) 9499
1:20 cover 9495 +4

1:36, another divergence (short) waiting..
1:48, bb tick (short) violation, waiting just a bit..
1:51, short 9513 (maybe waited too long)
2:05, cover 9503 +10 (should have reversed 2-3 min earlier)

2:09 bbtick (short) violation, waiting for turn
2:11 short 9514
2:24 cover 9510 should have taken 10pts while I had the oppo. +4

2:37 missed this short, dunnow why. spooked to short 9514 again, and it looked like a 2nd massive program buy (guessing)


My last two trades aren't logged (another sign I was not fresh enough to continue).

Obviously there's a problem with bb breakouts on the price chart... I'm trying to wait more when these happen (because its often the 2nd or third (sometimes 4th) local peak/valley in the tick that's the best entry).

I'm trying to formalize the bb handling, and thinking about tossing the 'divergence' idea out for now.

thanks for any comments

regards,
laz

edit: blue=long, red=short, white=exit
 

Attachments

some comments:

trade #

1. you just witnessed the 9:45 pivot. sometime around 9:40-9:45 look for it. enter near a floor pivot #. your exit was much too soon. wait to exit usually around 10:30, which is when you will reverse your position most likely.

2. again, no knowledge of the pivot #'s cause a bad entry. know the floor pivots!

3. this trade should have never happened. you should have been short from the 10:30 pivot.

4. this trade should have never happened. still in short from 10:30.

5-7. get some rest, relax. clear your head.

8. wait for the breakout...guess what? this is a pivot. you sold support! countertrend entries in the afternoon will NOT make you $$$. the risk is too high. you will be more likely to miss a good chunk of a move and this is where is really hurts you. patience, step back and see what is happening. things are moving slower than you think. get the big move. trending entries. look for exit at 3:30 reversal off pivot.

9. this trade should have never happened. your exit for a loss was actually at the next pivot reversal at 3:30.


knowing how to filter out the smaller moves and 'read' what and who is moving liquidity, will allow you to have less stress and more money. i would suggest you learn the pivot #'s and have them in horizontal lines on your chart. you will trade much better when you are aware of them consciously.

good luck and good trading!
 
Quote from laziz314159:

Having whacked my account by 30% trying to trade ES...

thanks for any comments

regards,
laz
More...

laz,

Your all over the place...I think you should slow down...don't bounce from one strategy to the next...

Use only one trade setup regardless if it appears a few times per day or a few times per week...

concentrate only on that ONE trade setup...knowing its strengths and weakness until you master the trade signal and master the trade management of it (stuff that happens after entry).

After several months of only trading ONE trade setup...

your discipline will have improved tremendously along with stopping the bleeding along with having a trade setup you'll have enduring confidence in it almost everytime it appears.

NihabaAshi
 
Quote from NihabaAshi:

laziz314159,

By the way...

What charting program is that...that you used for the YM chart you posted???

NihabaAshi
More...

Neuroshell.. I can build indicators and test ideas with it faster than anything else. Right now I'm just trying to train the neural net in my head, so I haven't been doing much except experimentation with the nets.

regards,
laz
 
Thank you both for your very constructive posts.

Funky: Thanks for reminding me about pivot #'s and times. I added the #'s to the chart today, and they were instructive.

Your commentary on the trades seems spot-on, although I have a couple of questions:

Trade #4 is right on top of a support line.. Or am I miscalculating pivot #'s? I thought one just divides yesterday's range into 3rds and add and subtract them from the close.

Trades 5-7, I thought, were decent trades, except that I should have reversed off the first one. Given that my primary signal (tick bb violations) is effectively an oscillator, one would expect capturing a great deal of the activity in a large horizontal channel.

NihabaAshi: Thanks for telling me to stick to one setup. I've decided that I will only trade tick bb violations-- none of this divergence stuff. I'm filing away my observations for future use, but for now, one setup and one setup only.

-------

Today there were only two trades, although there should have been 4 (I woke up too late, and I give myself at least 1hr of wakefulness before taking a trade.

2 trades, 1 win, 1 loss, +1pt

I've numbered the signals today, because it's more instructive than just the trades.

#1 & #2 Not been out of bed long enough.

#3 short 9518, cover at first support line 9507, +11 Too eager to take a profit on the first trade. Could have ratcheted down my stop loss beyond breakeven, and let it sit, and I wouldn't have freaked out.

#4 didn't trade it, wary of LOD breakdown

#5 long 9462 (yeah, that's me at the high print), stopped out 9452 -10. Looked like it was holding support, lunchtime, etc. My internal warning bell was going off, should have listened and gotten out pre-stop.

#6 didn't trade it. Maybe I should have (mkt was effectively trendless by this point), but after witnessing the lunchtime carnage, I didn't even think about pulling the trigger.

No other signals for the rest of the day.


Thanks for reading and commenting,

Laz
 
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