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Simple example: Company A stock price: $150 High EPS $25 Mean EPS $20 Low EPS $ 15 Current Fwd P/E based upon price is: 7.5x Variance of EPS to stock price= high - low / stock price = ~6% Normally the variance is low near-term but high long-term. The variance could go from 6% in FY 2023...

One thing I use fundamentals for is to triangulate the variance in sell-side expectations around a stock (and sometimes to develop my own unique view). If a stock has two competing narratives -- one of accelerating growth and the other of the beginning of a slow decline, you'll see that data...

We need a forum for fundamentals for sure. Let's make it happen @Baron

Sounds like you can trade an FX and basic (index) equity global macro strategy using regional UCITS. I'd look into: real rate differentials, the determinants of exchange rates (note: it's somewhat diff between DM and EM), aggregate earnings surprise and the impact on equity indices. Macro...

fundamental equity research is much harder

Good start. However, data is lagging and are not helpful for multi managers. Can be useful for single managers though.

Start by reading up on papers around things you want to trade. For example, if you want to be a day trader, should do some paper searches along the lines of "intraday momentum" or "intraday price reversals" and see what researchers have put together. You can then replicate their process and try...

yeah academic papers are usually 1-5 years after private traders figured something out... real traders are not publishing their findings in papers. so if someone publicly published something 10 years ago, what does that tell you about where pros are today?

why i think he's doing it wrong is because intraday momentum is not the profit center for retail; liquidity provisioning is: Barrot_Kaniel_Sraer.pdf (berkeley.edu) therefore, retail traders could earn more as short-term contrarians than they would by chasing high frequency momentum (which does...

There are 3 primary types of edge: informational, analytical, and behavioral. All are trainable and transferable. Alpha erodes quickly. Trading momentum is totally fine he's just doing it wrong lol. You're a smart guy, here's a paper that was published nearly a decade ago looking at intraday...

Both suck and both are lagging. If you talk to traders at hedge funds (known as portfolio managers) they will rely heavily on fundamental equity research, positioning, and quantitative insights. The reality is that most trading won’t be round trips in the day, because the driver of small time...

I looked him up, he doesn’t say on his website that he was with schonfeld and that would be a huge selling point if he was. He was at a day trading prop firm and the guy he said was his mentor was similarly a day trader. https://accessatrader.com/identify-breakout/ He’s trading intraday...

uhhh this dude is not a real trader lol

shake shack > in n out :D

1. No. More like , not price target. More like a complex option trade to get a better payout e.g. 5:1 or 10:1. Not every trade can fit into a structure like that, but that's something a good salesperson can do for you. Another big value add is acting as a sounding board, helping you develop an...

Stock prices are geometric random walks with drift in between informational events. It means there can be some mean reverting qualities to prices between new information. Theoretically if prices were efficient your chart would look like a step function. Because the market is not perfectly...

Definitely possible but you need to have a verrry robust filter. I recommend you pick up a few textbooks written by ex-pros (everything by Adam Iqbal, Howard Marks, etc) to learn how they view and analyze markets. From there, start researching papers (can google “momentum anomaly review pdf” for...

Because the flow comes to them lol. There are 3 primary jobs on the trading floor: sales, sales-trading, and trader (risk taker). There’s typically 3-4 sales people per product on the institutional covering territories (e.g. g10 rates Asia or g10 rates west coast). Usually 8-10 sales-traders per...

No, brokers are “sell side” and investors/traders/speculators are “buy side”. Think about it in terms of real estate agents lol. They don’t really hold inventory as their primary job is to help their clients buy or sell properties. Whereas buy side, you own the property or are trying to acquire it.

Sales-traders yes, risk takers it depends on the product. Assuming a risk taker has survived for 5+ years, they’ve probably earned their salt.