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jesus h. christ, the only stock which I follow, AAPL, is going bonkers at the new iphone.

This is how we do it. When it's Tuesday night, and I feel all riiight, party's here on the west side. So we seem to be hitting resistance at $6.540 Feb/$0.12 Feb/Mar spread. Will it hold... will it hold.. methinks not. What say you, Comanche?

weeee

You too, btw, the Feb-Mar spread has stayed flat at $0.165 and Mar-Apr at $0.100 even with a move from -1% to +1% today, any idea why they did not drop? Do we need a sustained uptrend to move February closer to March and March closer to April?

$6 does seem to be a stronghold for the prompt month. I'm awaitin for the pre-weekend weather short covering. Maybe I should move out of the Feb-Mar spread into the Feb-Apr spread, seems to be more meat there.

Seems like no one cares about the incoming cold weather. Might be because of the insanely horrific withdrawal numbers coming up. The gas flow models are showing a really low draw for the last week of 2006 (week ending 12/29/06, report 01/05/07) in the -53 BCF area, more than 60% below the...

OK, I think I'm starting to understand... so when you said there wasn't much juice left to the downside because of storage economics, you were referring to the idea that storage costs are less than the spread between NGG7 and NGG8 and so the dynamic play would be that regardless of weather...

So then I guess my question would be, if it only costs $0.80 per mmBTU per year to store, why wouldn't I buy all the storage I could and NGG7 contracts to fill it and sell NGG8 contracts? The spread is $2.50 right now between the two NGG7 @ $6.30, NGG8 @ $8.80. As long as I can buy storage...

Ahh now I understand. So I would not realize the loss on the hedge, I keep it place As long as there is some sort of backwardation, whether it be spot to prompt month, or prompt to the month after, etc.. I withdraw to sell to the nearer month, and buy a contract to refill for less at a...

Touche on EEX and ENDEX. Considering where the energy hedge funds are located, does that mean the regulation is 70% US 20% London 10% elsewhere for ICE? How does one even determine where the traders are? The hedgers are probably in the UK for UK Gas, but what about Brent crude? There...

I'm not sure what you're asking. Almost all energy contracts are denominated in US Dollars and all the pit trading is in the US and most of the electronic trading is in the US, with some electronic trading nominally in the UK. The UK trading is on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) which...

I understood everything until "Enter weather. If cold were to return, you would have to trade cash over nearby a good bit to get the rolled gas back to this season, making it profitable for me to buy back my hedge for next Jan and reinject in April or May. Now if we were to finsih Jan...

Damn, good point, I didn't notice the prompt month had less open interest than the next two months. That does explain the pre long weekend short covering being more pronounced for March than for February. Thanks comanche. Btw, I don't think I even can display open interest for futures...

Ahh dear old carpet-bagging, abuse-loving, coattail-riding, hypocrite Hillary Clinton from my home state of NY. next thing you know she'll ban cattle futures because they exploit the underclasses of America.

I subscribe to GQ, good magazine. Anyhow, why April QG or NG? April is the dump month when there's storage overhang. Also low liquidity in the e-minys, the spreads are ridiculously high and the volume way too low for April QG. Going long February or March are probably better natty trades.

Good luck! You've been waiting patiently like a sniper the last week for that natty spread, eh? I remember your post. I ended up covering the short in the upper $6.60's like I contemplated and then I took the long April, short March spread through Thursday, and went long March at the close...

I bet many of the NYMEX traders are from Brooklyn. I'm from Brooklyn, so you wanna do sumthin about it? :p http://www.doubletongued.org/index.php/citations/natty_1/

Sorry, I meant March LONG April SHORT, with the thinking being that winter demand will increase and April is the first shoulder month so March will increase more than April and the spread widens with March further ahead of April than it is now?

Yeah, the article where the hedge fund founder Maounis says the positions were hedged rubbed me the wrong way, Brian piled on leverage to offset that decrease in daily gain/loss in an attempt to get large gains. The other factor which I think is important is that to get the same risk exposure...

Thinking about the Amaranth spread trade, it's not really any less risky if you use full margin, since spread trades have only a $2300 per NG spread maintenance margin requirement versus $10700 per contract for a one sided trade, so you can increase your exposure five times over with the same...