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  1. M

    Cash tbond data

    Reuters should be able to do it, I think... Try this for eod data: https://www.treasurydirect.gov/GA-FI/FedInvest/selectSecurityPriceDate.htm
  2. M

    Cash tbond data

    Looks like the WSJ publishes smth daily: http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3020-treasury.html
  3. M

    Investor Makes Mammoth VIX Bet That Could Pay Out $265 Million

    Yes, my contract delta numbers were off by a factor of 10...
  4. M

    The Mystery of Why Japanese People Are Having So Few Babies

    Given that Catherine the Great died at the age of 67, does that legend sound plausible to you?
  5. M

    Investor Makes Mammoth VIX Bet That Could Pay Out $265 Million

    So I'd need to divide the contract delta by 10, right?
  6. M

    Investor Makes Mammoth VIX Bet That Could Pay Out $265 Million

    Not that unreasonable at all, just a little cute to imagine that one could forecast how hard VIX can bounce if we have a proper sh1tshow, while also being certain that it can't stay where it is today. It's a very bigly bet that resembles a call fly in terms of its payoff, but is a lot more...
  7. M

    Investor Makes Mammoth VIX Bet That Could Pay Out $265 Million

    And that's why the guy sold more than 500k of 25 calls for 0.45? According to some (conservative) estimates I've seen out there, it would be reasonable to expect a 1 - 1.5 move in the VIX for every 1% selloff in the Spooz. You can do the math to see what our hero's PNL might look like on...
  8. M

    Investor Makes Mammoth VIX Bet That Could Pay Out $265 Million

    If it's for a real money account, it baffles me even more... Someone like an infamous "Fiddy", who just buys teenies as a hedge, I understand that. But this thing just looks like a punt, rather than a hedge. At any rate, they probably know what they're doing, all these people...
  9. M

    Investor Makes Mammoth VIX Bet That Could Pay Out $265 Million

    It's possible, of course, but unlikely, I think... People have been talking about this one and examining it closely, so it's hard to imagine that everyone got it backwards.
  10. M

    Investor Makes Mammoth VIX Bet That Could Pay Out $265 Million

    Ye, given the sheer size of this thing, it's baffles me bigly...
  11. M

    Investor Makes Mammoth VIX Bet That Could Pay Out $265 Million

    This trade's risk isn't necessarily limited to the number I've given. Its reward, on the other hand, is capped at the max given in the OP's article. This is what the payoff looks like at expiry:
  12. M

    Investor Makes Mammoth VIX Bet That Could Pay Out $265 Million

    Just as VIX is well on its way to hit a new all time closing low... If Oct VIX futures end up settling arnd where we are now, this trade will lose arnd $67mio.
  13. M

    GDP growth historical datas( World bank )

    Germany was considered the "sick man" of Europe during the late 90s - early 00s. A lot of it had to do with the price they had to pay for reunification.
  14. M

    Another Bullish Sign For the Economy Corporate Bond Spreads

    Well, this may mark the top: *MANDATE: GREECE EUR BENCHMARK 5Y BONDS
  15. M

    Another Bullish Sign For the Economy Corporate Bond Spreads

    I think I have seen stuff like this somewhere. although I recall it only very dimly. The only thing I can find off the top of my head is this: https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/wp/2006/wp06104.pdf
  16. M

    Bond Trader Bets $10 Million That Volatility Revival Is Imminent

    The strangle expired... The buyer may have taken some of the delta off, since there were some large clips of TY crossed. Of course, it might have been the mkt-makers hedging, since it's never 100% clear.
  17. M

    How to calculate leverage when trading futures

    This is a most amusing thread...
  18. M

    Bond Trader Bets $10 Million That Volatility Revival Is Imminent

    Yeah, could be... Like that Fiddy guy or smth. And yeah, that VIX trade today was pretty nuts...
  19. M

    Bond Trader Bets $10 Million That Volatility Revival Is Imminent

    It's was a block trade done by a broker for a client on the exchange... It was probably some HF BSD who did it.
  20. M

    Bond Trader Bets $10 Million That Volatility Revival Is Imminent

    Who knows, although it's unlikely that this person works in a bank, IMHO...
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