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1030 hrs CST Looks like I missed another classic short at 114 16 again. Darn! You know I've talked about redemption days and how important they are. Well, we've had redemption weeks off and on over the last few months. This week certainly qualifies for a redemption week.

So to conclude the previous trade, I had a late entry at 114 130. Once that occurs, you really can't shoot for your standard ticks returned trade. You have to adjust. My standard is 4 - 6 ticks. 6 ticks from the ideal entry of 114 16 (in a perfect world) is 114 10, hence I started to get out...

1023 Out of all at 114 110 I don't like these bounce backs.

1022 CST out of 4 ZB at 114 100

The time for the above was between 1011 and 1014 CST. In any event I'm posting my target. I'm short an 8 lot. I may start peeling off some on the way down just to be safe. I didn't get 114 16 as an entry. More later.

I'm looking for 114 00 for this most recent short. A solid scalp short occured at 114 14 to 114 16.

0838 CST I'm getting ready to wrap up my posting. I'm thinking of taking most if not all off on this final test of 115 31. If we don't break through it decisively then that will be it for me. I think we will see lower prices but at this time with more than three successful shorts under...

Thinking out loud: Reasons for thinking short so late in the move: 1) ES is holding up very well on the hourly. 2) Bonds are due for a 2 - 4 point down move. 3) We've broken fairly major daily and hourly chart support today. Reasons why I may be wrong: 1) It is late in the...

0829 CST Per my previous journals, I took most of my position off at the double 00's. Holding small size and will add to this position (short) all the way up to 116 08. Obviously, watching the ES and looking closely at strength (none present so far) in the 10 year and 30 year which may...

0824 CST 116 01 is a VERY IMPORTANT level from 14 July 2007. Let's watch closely!

FYI, we have already had two ideal textbook shorts at 116 17 and 116 15, roughly 0745 and 0758 (if you were brave enough), so this third one bears watching. My thoughts are we will have a multi-day hold if one were so inclined. I've been bitten so many times in the past holding overnight...

0816 CST FWIW, I am short at 116 05. I'll watch closely as this is my third trade of the day, all shorts.

16 July 2008 0812 CST Levels for today at current prices 116 12 116 06 115 28 A break below the mid-point and I would target the next level, i.e. 115 28 etc.

0903 CST We are now completely out of the level of my day trading range numbers, i.e. the more detailed numbers I mentioned earlier that I haven't posted. That will be it from me until tomorrow. The 4 numbers I've posted are still useful for today, however the usual caveats apply. What...

0900 CST My update now is to watch: 116 07 115 31 It is too late to make this trade, but I would have bought at 0850 looking for 116 16. It looks like we will hit it.

0851 CST I just woke up now and see that my post was off. A full point move is not a scalp day. Obviously selling at 115 31 would have been stopped out for a loss for me.

14 July 2008 0421 CST My bias is to the short side today, however, considering the move on Friday one would be wise to be cautious and pick entries carefully. My best guess for today is that we will stay in a range due to the lack of news. My large daily numbers are: 115 31 114 22...

Wow, a 1225 print on the ES and we didn't collapse. My line in the sand for the ES was 1235, i.e. below that and all bets were off regarding the rally I felt for sure was coming in the ES, hence my strong desire to short the bonds heavily. My thoughts were we would have a sell bonds to buy...

I started trading the 30 year in 1994. I could be wrong, but I don't think I've ever seen a 5 point move in one day. I wasn't trading during any of the huge event days (i.e. 9/11), so I don't recall what we had on those days. It would be nice of course.:) In any event, the final result...

I got in at 116 130 on a 2 lot during the above post. This may not be a good move due to it being late in the day. I'm looking for a break of 116 105. In retrospect, as I was posting and missed the 116 105 print, I think it may have been a good target as the ideal entry on this trade was...