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  1. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    BAC nearing a $4 handle. All the bailouts, the Fed programs, the 0% rates, the Buffet/Obama investment, and nearly all the way back to the March 6, 2009 low. A triumph of capitalism over fascism. Love it.
  2. R

    Hedge Fund Trio Claim $254MM Lotto

    When the odds are good enough, it makes sense to buy up a massive number of lottery tickets. It's a pretty simple mathematical computation. I know of at least one hedge fund that did this in the past when the jackpot got big enough. Whatever the story is, I'd say with nearly 100% certainty it...
  3. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    The country's finances are outstanding. In fact, they resemble Ireland prior to 2008. Reflexivity will be a word Aussies will become familiar with in coming years.
  4. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Eh, can't help myself. It just hit me that I was given a near 300 pip gift over the last 12 hours. Just re-established a small short in AUDUSD.
  5. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Lovely symmetry to AUDUSD over the past couple of months. A perfect LoBogala performed twice from Sept-Nov. Now back on the way up. The only question: is it another LoBogala, i.e. wait until $1.07 to short again, or will this month's move fall short...
  6. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Euro and aussie opening up solidly/sharply higher on the basis of ... nothing in particular except stupid hope. Two weeks ago, this Sunday night move up was one of the more obvious fades ever. 400 pips lower for the euro and 600 pips lower for the aussie, it's not such a clear fade tonight. Will...
  7. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Tilson in Barrons still bullish on NFLX. Not really news, although the suckup reporter doesn't mention that "Whit" is down about 20% in weeks from his initial NFLX buy. Of more interest, is that Tilson has 4% of his funds in the stock. Of even more interest, Tilson manages $150M - this guy...
  8. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Must read piece on the DSK case. Incredible detail about the his and the maid's movements that day. What a travesty, with still more than a few unanswered questions. It should have been clear to any police detective within minutes that her story couldn't be at all truthful. Also the press...
  9. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Rumor mill churning and I've got to get out to the golf course (65 in Phila. today!) Out of everything in currencies except a handful of FXA puts.
  10. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    That didn't last long ... legging back into AUD short after Merkel/Sarkozy presser. More of the same out of those two ...
  11. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    I've been thinking about that "failed" German Bund auction and I'm surprised I haven't seen any of the press covering the differences in say, German debt sales and American debt sales. As I read it, German auctions basically require real money buyers as opposed to the U.S., which are more a...
  12. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Out of the straight AUD/USD short. Still own a few puts on FXA, but no position in the currency anymore.
  13. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    For tomorrow's paper. Reuters reporting it ... twitter and google are your friends http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/11/23/eurozone-germany-eurobonds-idUSL5E7MN4OS20111123
  14. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Bild reporting Merkel dropping resistance to eurobonds. Pavlovian markets rallying. Truly sad and pathetic.
  15. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Anybody following the DMND story? When does this puppy become a buy? http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/102451
  16. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Chanos back from HK and Oz. ... "a complacent Australia which has hitched its economy to the tail of the tiger." :D http://www.bloomberg.com/video/81455126/ 75 handle on AUD before 2012 is out.
  17. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    AUD w/ 96 handle now. :) Banking some coin, but my guts are churning right now. It feels like we're on the edge of a complete financial meltdown - think 1987 combined with 2008. Words from 'crats no longer can do a thing. All that's left is coordinated central bank action to paper Europe...
  18. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Euro finally starting to crack a bit and stay down despite the bounce in shares. This support of the euro every time shares tick up is ridiculous. Europe is in recession - most of the continent in a severe one. The currency ought to be at a far lower level, irregardless of the sovereign debt...
  19. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Failed bond auction in Germany. This is going well.
  20. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    I know Larry McD. Still exchange emails with him once in a blue moon.
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