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Sorry, on vacation so not posting much, just to explain this and gaps you see in the coming weeks. Not going to be back to full time til June. Yeah, since the verticals are well south of where the market is now, VIX calls would be decent protection against an event that would put the verticals...

Entirely unsolicited opinion, I know, but FWIW (free advice & worth every penny) I'm selling 1635/1630 verticals next week if I can get a decent credit (1.25 or higher). 1635 was busted decisively on Tuesday, and there should be upside follow-through next week in SPX after the strength we had...

Thanks for the info. Still looking at everything. USGS published just a few days ago a reassessment of Bakken that upped their estimates by two times for oil and three times for gas, which is a pretty sharp contrasting view. I'm not taking this guy's word for it, but I will be watching. John...

As I noted above, trying to find every last source of info I can on this sector. Just the other day I ran across The Oil Drum, a forum for energy related stuff, and found a couple of very interesting articles on the Bakken Shale which also gets into recovery rates that are generally true for...

Idea I think is to use VXX options instead. VXX/XIV: VXX has the options. VXZ/ZIV: VXZ has the options.

Yeah, I've been doing that. Haven't done anything yet. Saw the drop on Wednesday, then noted how on Thursday it barely reacted to the fall in nat gas at 10:30, and then spiked up within an hour of that, and on Friday not only finished making up all the ground it lost Wednesday but went up even...

First article above says Libya produces 1.6 million barrels/day. That's a lot. Understandably some may have gotten knocked out by the conflict, but that number is probably what they could do with all systems humming. For Syria I see an estimate of 400,000 barrels/day.

I don't see how Syria affects anything. Not a major oil producer. Unless this turns into a wider conflict (Assad's Iraq and Iran allies), I'm not seeing it.

Yeah I did forget to check the curve. Thanks for that.

Fundamentals + probabilities. Assume over the longer term the fundies win out, in the shorter term it's all random. Via options you choose two out of the three directions: up, sideways, down. Up or down is determined by the fundies, of course. Get vega on your side (this is a little...

I'll have to look at that in detail. Thanks.

OK, so should I wait til Memorial Day, or hold out until after Labor Day?

Yeah but have things gotten more dangerous in the past few years? Middle East has always been there as a risk.

Reasons to short: 1 - Supply: a) Is this a great country or what?? This EIA site has a graph where you can run some analysis tools, among which is a seasonality analysis where supplies for this year are compared to previous years. It shows that this year's supply is greater than any five...

Some hedging naturally going on, as there's a Fed statement coming Wednesday and the employment report's on Friday. So IV on the S&P will naturally go up until these events pass. The start of that hedging is what you're seeing on that graph, I'd expect tomorrow to be more of the same.

P/L before commish, no doubt.

Seriously speaking, this isn't the first time the right has used crap. Try reproducing Friedman's NAIRU. Can't be done. I tried, and in actuality you wind up finding that low levels of unemployment correlate positively - if ever so slightly - with low levels of inflation. But the correct...

Lame: We regret the systems outage that delayed today’s opening of CBOE. We have isolated the software issue that caused the problem and have made the necessary adjustments for a normal opening tomorrow. We are also conducting an ongoing and thorough internal review of the software...

Everything's working. Good thing not much was going on today re VIX. SPX was more annoying, but fortunately I was well hedged there. Still, this is very scary. Where were their backup systems? Do they even HAVE backup systems?

Me too. Imagine if this were monthly expiration day for VIX or SPX. These guys are beyond belief.