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I won't be taking this trade if we do hit that level, so I agree that it's insane to try to catch such a falling knife. Too risky for my taste. I'll watch the price behavior, though, just for edumacation purposes. :D

That's true. I'm just saying that, if we do get down to 1320 or so, I will watch the price action around that level, to see if we form a base or do a rapid hit and turn. Frankly I'm not excited about trying a long anytime soon, so I have to agree with you. But, if the risk is tight, it's...

This is still ROUGH (dealing with multi-year log charts..), but support is around 1315-1325.. Figure there will be some fudge +/-. I'll be watching the price action in the coming days to see if the market respects this level, assuming we do get there.

Yes, this is nutty but pull up a log chart. Connect the bottoms. I'd suspect the lows it's carving out on the futures chart around 1350 - 1355 correspond to uptrend spt edit: Need to fine tune this.. hang on

Oh man... sorry. I'm not a dickwad that is going to rub it in your face, especially if you really are holding short naked 1300 puts. Man..

1) Perhaps in some sense, but in actuality I still don't understand it all, not by a large margin. 2) I just learned about the coupon rate today, thanks to one of the above videos. Shows how much I don't know. I was wondering about that drop, though, thanks for clarifying. 3) Ok, here's...

Might I ask where was gold trading when you shorted the 1300 May puts?

Yeah, I'm not particularly enthused about making my target be the attempted reversal point. It's just a profit target based on a measured move rough estimate and one possible uptrend support. In actuality the uptrend support is time-dependent so needs massive refinement.. it's still a broad...

You're out of your m.. what I meant to say was, Good sir, I do respectfully disagree with your prediction.

This knife's a bit sharp even for my nutty contrarian taste. I still maintain my 1,400 target per my journal, but would like to refine the #, and also watch the price action around that level, if and when we do reach it.

Auto liquidation makes it that much easier these days to just bucket, grab the account in full, then bounce the market. No need to wait for the margin calls to complete before turning the market. http://www.hark.com/clips/gghqdxghdk-you-know-we-dont-have-394-million-in-cash

:) I still need to read through all of the provided material from the other posters to learn exactly why the 2Yr Note is basically flat relative to the yield curve (see aligned chart above). This is mostly what sparked my curiosity. Presumably there are quantitative factors that I do not yet...

No one will tell you the truth because the retail trading business has declined, and bottom feeder fish are still desperately needed. $500 margin futures brokers are the typical destination for such bait. The hard truth is that you are insufficiently capitalized. You need way more money to...

I'm watching this video now, first. Wow, this is a very nice introduction to how the futures are priced.

Thanks, everyone, for your detailed and thoughtful answers. I have aligned and inverted the 2-yr yield curve to match the bond futures: This clearly shows us that the 2 year bond volatility is all but non-existent at this time, even though the yield curve still seems to have quite a...

Can someone explain, in layman's terms, what is the relationship between T-Bonds and yield curves? (Please see 1st and 2nd images below). I admit to having limited knowledge of this area of finance, but am interested to learn more. I can read through wikipedia articles for academic answers...

You know what, you are absolutely correct. Everything you said, in this post and your previous ones, are completely true. I take back everything I said. Take care.

$50 stop will not work because of spread/commish/slippage/execution issues. The smaller the time frame, the more unpredictable things become, so it's more likely you will have a ton of stop losses, esp if using something ridiculous like a "$50 per contract stop". $500 margin lets you save...

The only truth in this post is that if you are going to overleverage, the large account will in fact be a worse idea. If you do not have self control, then yes, do *not* open a big account. In fact, do not open *any* account. Just relax. The markets will still be here when you're ready...

If you are making a few trades a month, and looking for swing trades, and don't mind getting killed on the commish and spread, then maybe the micros could work, I don't know. You would have to factor in add'l capital to accommodate these other factors that will be working against you. If you...