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High probability is predictive lol. If something occurs with 100% frequency you can bet it will occur next. :banghead:

Huh? What would you call a fund manager?

Yes but a lot of folk on here claim that they’re day trading with price action. I’m happy to do something for a longer time frame I just want to make sure it’s a test that people think is fair.

yes clearly there’s so much edge here which is why ET survey respondents perform worse than a coin flip. I don’t need to know the details of your edge, I just want to know what you think would be a good test so that you can’t use that as an excuse.

Can you break that down into: - what data do you need - to make a prediction about where the stock will go if you’re saying that you can’t predict the price then just let me know. Thanks.

Nope. A lot of the feedback here is from people who clearly don’t understand the scope of the survey. It’s merely testing a hypothesis that price action is useful to predict the next price. Clearly it’s not. Now we can run different surveys to gauge where traders are able to use price action...

The questions are binary — will the next bar be higher or lower? Not asking for a specific price. This forum is full of people who claim to be great at price action analysis, so thought a quiz measuring that would be useful. Yes I do trade.

Appreciate the honest feedback. It is meant to focus purely on price action, hence the lack of other details.

If they’re enough for you then please take the quiz :-)

Okay that’s fair, but I’ve posted plenty of resources on other threads. There are lots of ways to make money in the markets, but price action and chart reading clearly aren’t enough.

Hmm I guess I wouldn’t define that as a risk reward of 1:2.

I posted on another thread one of the signals I use which has a 64% hit rate. I’ll give you a hint, it’s not rooted in technicals or price action. I don’t claim that trading is simple or easy or something anyone can do with just a chart.

So you’re telling me that you need more than just the price action of a stock to figure out what’s going to happen?

What do you need for a quiz like this to be fair to your style?

I initially set it up to test a group that said they had an edge (hint: they do not). how are you determining if a risk / reward is 1:2? Are you just pointing to a line on the chart and saying “I think the stock can reach this” and then place a stop loss somewhere below the current price?

The conclusion so far is that technical analysts/chart traders, on average, perform worse than a coin flip. :-)

Mickey! Stop giving away the point

Have you done research in the past that illustrates your performance with those factors?

What’s the context you need