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How is it any more gambling than day trading? For all I know, I could end up being correct if I wait. But in real money, I would never have that amount of money to tie up like that on a hunch.

I mentioned trying to trade based on hunches I have about the economy. So a few hours before Brexit a few days ago, I put about $10,000 of fake money in 16 currency pairs betting on the GBP. (Total $160,000). So far I'm losing on every single one, but it's only been a few days. I'm down about...

You can see that the legs are clearly defined after the fact. But how can you know the top or bottom until after it happens? So you entered and closed 13 trades that day? Can you be more specific about your results? Or even what your signals are based on? Did you win all 13 trades? If not, how...

But you can't see the top or bottom until after the fact, right? This seems like an obvious thing that most people here don't say.

In that case, we're always in an uptrend.

Yea really. Here's an example... https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/3f4a3fc8-1c89-11ea-97df-cc63de1d73f4

It's not just the futures. It's the index itself.

Does "direction" and "trend" refer to interday movement? Or only within 1 day? Does yesterday's trend mean anything about today?

Here's TSLA after it recently went way up on earnings. Are you saying there's something after the jump that is explained by technicals?

TA? The thread mentioned earnings reports. That's FA. I looked and Dropbox has never made a profit. Definitely not something I would want to own.

It was based on news. Thinking people overreacted to an attack on Saudi oil facility.

Can you define "trend following strategy" or give an example of one?

January 30th. S&P500. It lost over 1% almost immediately, then gained about half of that back before noon, before losing it again by about 1pm. Then, rose to basically break even for the day. Let's say this day trader is trading the e-mini futures contract. Would this trader have gone in to...

So they wait for an overbought or oversold in reaction to news? I actually did this once in Forex.

In addition to volatility and trend, what about volume?

It's posts like his, who is apparently a long-time trader, that make me give up on ever getting advice from here. Due to how obviously wrong his post was.

People reacted to the news. The order of events went... 1. The news (coronavirus, in this case) 2. Investors selling due to fear 3. Prices drop How can you even argue with that?

People have been saying overbought for a long time now. Yet corporate earnings still keep surprising.

What happened past few days that was special or unique?

This is what George Soros did. He made longer-term bets on what he thought would happen. He won more than he lost because his logic was accurate, I suppose. But yes it is gambling to me. But I also haven't seen any way to make other strategies seem less like gambling.