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Easiest: Dollar Cost Averaging into VTI or VOO Hardest: Trying to get in at the IPO on the next Apple, Amazon, or Microsoft.

This is very concerning news....Once the BRICS unites, then China takes Taiwan and controls the supply chain for all things tech too. The next President needs to be a war time President.

Nah....My theory is that 'they' comeback from summer vacation to mess with the markets. It won't change on account of me. I think its going to be tame this year. I doubt if the VIX sees the high 20's.

Its just seasonality. That's how the markets work from late August to mid-October.

That was a roller coaster today. Something seemed off. The market took a ride down from 10am-11am. But the VIX peaked at 10am and was dropping while the market was dropping. I didn't know what to do. I rolled some OTM long puts out closer to the money.

This is looking wrong now. They blew their wad on NVDA. There ain't enough left for the rest of the market.

Yes. That's how I pick which options to sell and which to buy to create different spreads based upon my market thesis. If you aren't using that or something similar, then I am not sure what you are doing.

I added some metrics at intervals to show the evolution of the daily return distribution of GDX. What I can see is that the total return, mean, and skewness is trending in the positive direction. While the kurtosis (volatility) is trending down. This is an interesting asset to trade because...

I am looking for a brief 1–2-day rally: My numbers are: QQQ to 378 SPY to 450 IWM to 189

On a different note the GDX rally finally starts today! Patience is the key.

I am going to call it the end of this leg of the correction. The actuals were: SPY bottomed to 433 on 8/18. IWM bottomed to 181.86 on 8/18. QQQ bottomed to 354.71 on 8/18. Trying to nail the exact date and price is a tough game. My next prediction is a rally on NVDA then a hangover and hawkish...

One that will be honest on it's limitations. Technical analysis is analysis of past data. It's useful. You have to start somewhere. Regression is a generally accepted method for forecasting the next series on time series data.

No. Everyone needs oil. Not dollars.

The state x(t) of a geometric Brownian motion satisfies an Ito differential equation: d x(t) = μ * x(t) dt + σ*x(t) dw(t), where w(t) follows a standard Wiener Process. The state of x(t) follows a LogNormal Distribution of [(μ-) t+ Log[x0]] The parameter μ can be any real number, and σ and x0...

I don't know. I didn't go through it. I don't use that implementation of it.

Returns are normal. Prices are lognormal. Stock prices are always >=0.

Logging a journal entry for GDX YTD Parameters and a probability matrix. The far left column is the number of standard deviations: GDX Long-Term Baseline:

Then we should see some tails but an overall shifting of the distribution to the right.

I am not super bullish on Gold Miners. Just something to trade in the long direction while the market is in a correction. I modeled GDX with a 1st Order ARIMA and ran a forecast through September this is what it projects:

I am going back to dust off the cobwebs and develop the quant. tools again. I neglected it during the AI buzz and market rally. It's time to bring it back.