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Yes, you must be right. I don't know the instruments he was trading, but using 100K notional per contract, it would mean 50000 contracts to reach 5 B$ notional...At first, I thought the shop was a british prop firm and they had messed up his risks metrics( or didn't put them at all). When I see...

When you have a 1 B$ position losing 1M $ and you are worried for your family, make it a 5 B$ position...Pearl of Wisdom from Mr Traoré

And you bet it, he is suing the brokerage...LOL... Only in France.... Kerviel, Iksil and now Traoré...Not at the same level but this one is really fun. But really I am eager to see how the brokerage justify they should keep the money. Of course, the man shouldn't have been trading such size and...

I don't place stops ( except for spreads subject to squeezes. Ex: Robusta Coffee ), but yes you should place your mental stop at a price highly unusual. You want to be really wrong when you are stopped. Adjust your profit target accordingly, it should be at a "normal" value...

They still have to convince Iran. They seem resolute against production increase.

Went long your spread @ -4185.8( Seasonalgo quote ), but on BZ and HO, which is pretty much the same. By the way, I think OPEC production increase should be bearish for Brent curve.

http://blog.clipperdata.com/chinese-tariffs-and-us-energy-flows

Really nice Alex. I may join you. I will do my homework tonight.

I don't know the exact formula( I have it on Seasonalgo ), but I guess they just substract the average spread over x years between the first expiry and all the others. Not sure. Like if NG N18/Q18 = -0.004 but the average of this spread over x years is -0.004, then the deseasonalized curve will...

Long White Sugar Mar19/May19 @ -4.4. - Historically low - Seasonals - Mar19 undervalued on the curve

Any inputs on the threat of tariff on chinese imports of US energy products? Crude oil, natural gas and gasoline are targeted whereas LNG is left for now. China has become the biggest net importer of US Shale oil. WTI/Brent suffering this morning but OPEC meeting later this week should create...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-15/china-targets-u-s-farm-imports-with-tariffs-on-soybeans-corn

Soybeans will open really low on monday with the 25 % chinese tax in effect July 6th. But the Brazilian cash will skyrocket and europeans will buy the US beans on the cheap. Almost the same story as with the threat of tariff in April, but now with lasting effects. Waiting for the list of...

Oh yes. It's still alive. I posted a trade today. 5-10 guys are posting regularly. the results are OK.

Hello, I wanted to create a thread dedicated to energy,similar to the one I made on the ag forum in 2014(https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/ag-trade-ideas.286103/). On top of scalping, I trade mostly short or long term spreads and butterflies based on fundamentals, forward curve shape and...

Short Live Cattle Aug/Oct/Dec fly @ 1.925. - Oct/Dec reverting after historical low. - Seasonal window

Short ZR N/U/X fly @ 2.08. - Couldn't find the reason behind N/U trend - Historically out of norm - Mexico is first importer of US rice...Trade war...

The only one I have read is "Merchants of Grain". Thanks for the references. I have never really used satellite imagery or even meteorology in my trading, I just trade based on monday's USDA crop progress reports and weather forecasts when it comes to crop estimates. I agree that those tools...

Anyone from Spain around? I am contemplating a move there.

Long Hogs Jul/Aug/Oct Fly @ -9.8. - Aug/Oct overvalued. -Jul/Aug in a bullish seasonal window.