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Which commodities do you think will benefit the most?

http://www.safehaven.com/article-2547.htm This author expects short rates to top around 2.75% for 2005. This versus the popular estimate of 3.5% I would tend to agree, since Fed just raised at a baby-step of 0.25% despite "hawkish" FOMC minutes about concerns over asset bubbles and tight...

Hmm, you're looking for a "catalyst" to lead to higher interest rates. There have been MANY "catalysts" sofar, but somehow they've been ignored by "the market". Perhaps "the market" seems to think that Greenspan is a magician and blindly trusts him (despite all the evidence to the contrary)...

Weekly chart

The weekly view on the 30yr bond yield. A month ago the technical picture looked conducive for a medium term short, with target in the 5.7% - 5.8% area (top of uptrend channel). Right now, the technical picture is marginal at best. Today at 4.65% it's back to second lowest reading of all...

Wrt inflation: Inflation is actually too much money and credit. During the last 3 years, worldwide money supply has increased by 37.1%. Many people seem to mistake "inflation" as being the same thing as CPI. In addition to that, the US government will create a statistically manipulated...

1. BOJ: Its balance sheet is currently 30% of Japan's GDP and is sitting on $100bn losses. If US dollar depreciates more, if US inflates away a large part of the debt (which I think it's certain), then the Japanese taxpayers will be left holding the bag. 2. Buffet: Please do your homework...

http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20050118-tue.html An update from Roach. Incidentally, 30yr bond closed at new high, so the market doesn't seem to care. The curve-flattening trade has keep going on for months now, but has been much more intense during the last 20 days.

What people need to understand, when trying to explain bond yields, is that today's markets are dominated by players who DO NOT have "profit maximizing" objective. Normal investors want to maximise their profits and get compensated for taking risk. On the other hand in case of Foreign Central...

ST, as most people all over the world do, I agree with you that this is an unjust "war". To say that US is unique in its policy of violence, is simply not true. Bloody wars have been integral to mankind throughout history. In my opinion, US has recently drifted in its own type of "Dark...

Nowadays in US bonds it seems that the major players (who set the prices) are NOT PROFIT MAXIMIZERS (like us, regular investors/traders). So bond prices are not what one would expect in a "free market" situation, where buyers want to be fairly compensated for their risks.

I've created a thread under Journals to discuss the case of betting on higher interest rates http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=43628 and would like to invite people to share their views on the subject.

About the asset bubbles and possible Fed actions: http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Late+Breaking+Commentary/EW/2005/FF_Jan_05.htm http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20050107-fri.html And a kind request: please try to keep this journal clean of non-productive comments. I welcome...

I don't buy the "deflation" scenario. The system was flooded with paper money during the last 3 years (world money growth +37.1% i.e. if your capital has grown less, you've actually lost) I don't know how good / reliable the long bonds are today as a predictor of future inflation. Let's hear...

RC, thx for the feedback. Personally, I like to listen to everyone's views. Some info for consideration: http://www.safehaven.com/article-2450.htm If he got his facts straight, FCBs are not directly involved in setting the current "artificially low" 10yr and 30yr yields. FCBs buy...

Numbers are fine, as long as we maintain the perspective. Have a look at the numbers of the leveraged carry trade (which will have to be unwound at some point, as FedFunds rise) http://www.inginvestment.com/news/bondnotes/bondnotes_march04.pdf http://slate.msn.com/id/2097084/

Intervention over time. BoJ already amassed $800bn "risky assets" which value is ~30% of Japan's GDP "Paper losses" (due to dollar slide) of those holdings were estimated at $70bn in April-2004 (should be about $100 billion at the end of 2004 assuming no change in positions) The Japanese...

In this thread we'll attempt to make a case on a short trade of US Bonds. We can also discuss various way to trade it (e.g. short futures, short TLT ETF, ED calendar spreads, reverse funds etc) This is a followup to the thread at http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=43253...

http://www.wpbfnews.com/money/3802963/detail.html Bill Gross overlooks $400bn in bonds.

Sure, Ryan Jones is a also vendor. He has a signal service for S&P, a trading system, an audio course etc