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Just a comment to @Frederick Foresight / @deaddog / @Sprout that perhaps you guys are not pure TA/PA types. There are plenty of people on this board who subscribe to the idea that you can trade very short time frames with just a chart. So far that does not seem to be the case.

People clearly believe that it’s not random and that you can use price action to make trades (which are bets on future prices). The quiz I made is extremely simple in that it merely asks if, based upon what you’re seeing in the chart, you think prices will be higher or lower. You would think...

hehe would not submit this in a paper, but it is a fun way to test a hypothesis or ask a question. In this case, the question is “how good are self-reporting price action traders at predicting the market based upon price action”. :thumbsup:

Shouldn’t the result still correspond to the difference from random?

To be clear, you’re saying the chart can be selected from a time between 8am to 12pm — but how much data do you want to be able to see? Since open? The last hour? Etc

Here you go: https://forms.gle/WJ8PhkRBvnKoFNYu5

What exactly didn’t you like about the current quiz?

Just to be clear — you’re saying you want a chart with 1 min candles? And the view is where price will be in 5 min?

Fair point and again, appreciate the clearer set of rules. If I show a chart with 1yr candles and volume, what else would I need? Also what time period would the forecast period be suitable for. E.g. using this data you would bet that price is > or < within X interval.

great point -- and just to add, I'm not saying ta/pa is completely worthless. there's definitely a role it can play, however, it's not sufficient on its own.

how do you know that your approach is better than random? iirc you mentioned a 40% hit rate which means your process is actually worse than random... beating random is the benchmark for skill...

You don’t know it’s p72, you don’t know if it’s a buy or sell, and you also don’t know if it’s a big trade or millions of hft. Big block trades occur much less frequently than you’d expect, and unless you know the sales-trader who managed it, you have no idea what side it’s on just by looking at...

Why are you spending time arguing over a hypothetical I presented as an example of the detail I’d need to make a fair test? The current version focuses on the very short term to answer a very simple question — is price action useful to assess whether the price is going to move higher or lower...

What evidence would you accept lol

I never said probabilities = prediction lol anyway, price action continues to be a poor technique in assessing what direction price will move to next.

*yawn* Personal attacks bore me

lol what a circular bit of mumbo jumbo. I’m not going to try to talk stats to you as it’s clear you’re getting lost in semantics and do not know what you’re talking about. Probability is not a prediction, you make a prediction based upon a probability. If you react, you are still making a...

You’re getting lost in semantics. If you say: “there’s an 80% chance rain will occur” it doesn’t not mean rain will occur at 100% — correct but if you know that there is an 80% chance of rain, you will carry an umbrella. This is the scope of “prediction” I’m talking about — so if you see a...

(1) no because I’m not testing my strategy here (also I don’t claim to trade intraday charts or use price action) (2) I’m saying the data shows that the people who claim to be able to use intraday price action are actually worse than random coin flips if the experts in price action can’t even...