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The left always value ideology over evidence

Since you can buy or sell them, knowing that one type has a poor return tells you the opposite will have a good return, no? (Trading costs excepted of course). I like your thinking. However in my experience markets are pretty efficiently priced and without putting a unique twist on things...

Everyone on this forum should have this tattooed on themselves somewhere visible. There seem to be so few who understand it. Exactly. Which is why i started this thread. Yes credit spreads have a great looking win rate. But using the above equation their returns looks pretty bad in anything...

Yeah that makes a lot of sense actually, to be honest most of my futures trading is mean reversion/spread trading these days. But can see how options are good for directionals. What percentage of your trades would you say you can turn what would have otherwise been a loser into a break even in...

If vol is low would it not be better selling further out strike, a month away, and buying your insurance in the near month and rolling that insurance again if needs be near expiry. You could probably reduce your spread for the same amount of premium. 60 days a long time to wait for 15 ticks though!

Hi Steve, Thanks a lot for the reply. Understood that delta is only hypothetical probabilities. I am assuming odds of touching are about 2 * delta. Most people on here seem to be trading options on stocks so was wondering if the premiums are higher there? Can't imagine why they would be. But...

I am an experienced futures trader but am looking to supplement with options and been looking into credit spreads Below is the options chain for the Eurostoxx Im looking at doing a credit spread on the put side. The 3200 strike has a delta of -21.50 so around my sweet spot in terms of...

Im in the UK too. The spreadbetting prices you see are the same as the underlying market (all be it with an extra tick or two in the bid offer spread). Its a myth spreadbetting companies move the price as and when they want. If they did there would be a free money arb between the spread betting...

I didn't advocate any tax rises. I hate tax. But is a neccesity. So my issue is addressing people that pay large amounts for services they don't use. I am advocating an approach where people pay for what they use. And a consumption tax would be more in line to that. Not saying it's ideal. Just a...

Never heard a dax trader refer to a price move as a "pip". Sounds like someone cant make money selling forex spam so swapped "EUR/USD" for "Dax"

Exactly, most people i know earning "good" salaries (by that i mean 80-150k) are only about 2 months of savings away from going into arrears on their mortgage/debt obligations. Yet according to governments people earning 50k+ are considered "rich" and have to start giving up almost half their...

My understanding of UBI is that its in place of a welfare system, so saves money on the bureaucracy and inefficiency of taking money off people just to hand it back. But this misses out the one huge issue no politician or liberal seems to address. Human nature. Despite the narrative of all...

Yea. But likewise we can think of things that the state controls that would be far better in the private sectors hands. Very few companies end up as monopolies. The odd 1-2% sneak through and win the game so to speak and that's wrong. But not a reason to not embrace capitalism. But the other...

I agree regarding the issue of technology. That's a major concern and all the social unrest blaming the left or the right of politics are probably wrong. It's neither. It's the automisation of jobs that's leading to a lot of the issues and there has to be a way to solve it. Where I disagree...

He has also recently warned us about the dangers of time travel and that any aliens we meet are likely to be hostile. Man i thought i worried about the unlikely! ;-)

Very good point. Capitalism is just human nature being harnessed so most people benefit from it. There is inequality. But the poorest people in a capitalist society are richer than 90% of people in alternative systems.. apart form the 'sharing caring' leaders that make off with fortunes. When...

Even though their entire ideology is anti-capitalist? Personality traits, both good and bad transcend politics, to say all arrogant people are capitalists and all nice people are socialists is pretty hilarious. In fact the most selfish arrogant people I know are mostly socialists. They have...

Riiight yeah, Castro, Chavez, Stalin were egoless freedom fighters that encouraged the development and growth of society weren't they

Where did i say all edges can be destroyed by algos? I still make money trading manually. I said the free money edges of the past have been killed off by algos. 10 years ago you could buy the same product on different exchanges 5 ticks below the bid. You could leg into cals via outrights that...

If you rely on little free money edges in the market that were there 10 years ago, no they aren't there anymore, algos automated all that stuff. But at the end up the day markets still go up and down and as long as they do you there will always be money to be made manual or otherwise. Im trading...