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  1. J

    203.98...

    I don't get to trade much due to work load, but when I traded full time, these big, gap up days were the hardest to trade for me. I did much better on days that opened slightly up/down.
  2. J

    Home Builders

    I'm not so sure I would call it a "Bubble". A bubble, or mania, implys people buying ONLY because its going up....the greater fool theory. The fundamentals are strong. Namely household formation (immigrants, Echo boomers, empty nesters downsizing etc...) and low inventory. I do belive...
  3. J

    "mathematically impossible"

    Yes, and according to "statistical probabilities", the 1987 crash was also "impossible", but it did happen. I have not seen the interview, but my guess is he is talking about large funds with broad exposure to the market.
  4. J

    Trading plan if Iraq war announced?

    At the risk of getting slammed, I'll jump in here. I think it's best to stand aside when you don't have a clear plan of attack. Who the hell knows how the market may react?
  5. J

    CNBC real estate bubble

    Well....this a subject dear to my heart. I'm a real esate appraiser and I've been very busy. I think you have two main dynamics going on in real esate right now. #1 you have an influx of new buyers because of low interest rates and demographics. Namely household formation due to immigrants...
  6. J

    Identifying Trading Stocks by vol and ATR

    I've been doing this a long time and the best/cheapest software I've found for running simple scans on stocks is TC2000. Its free, but will cost $30/month for the data. I have Metastock also, but hardly ever use. Here is site with some more info: http://www.tradeon.com/tradeon/tc2000/
  7. J

    Contracts/Instruments for Shorting Real Estate?

    You may want to look at stocks that have high degree of correlation with the housing market. Stocks like the home builders, or GSE's like Fannie Mae/Feddie Mac, Title insurers, large lenders etc...Many of these are in strong uptrends right now. If housing does drop, these would likely go down...
  8. J

    Baffled

    Funny you mention this. Yesterday I got my semi annual report on a mutual fund I have in my retirement account. I normally toss these, but decided to give it a look see, just to see what they owned etc... The thing that really stood out was how well this fund had out performed the SP500 over...
  9. J

    Book recommendations please

    More for the quant. "Option Volatility & Pricing" by Sheldon Natenberg.
  10. J

    Is this how you spell hypocrisy?

    You left out Justice and the American Way PS You do realize that the site you keep refering to is a partisan site, don't you?
  11. J

    Short Housing

    There is no way for me to tell for certain that your appraised value was "made to order", but this certainly is taking place. In fact it is one hot topic among appraisers. I have lost more clients and money than I care to think about because of lender pressure to "hit the number". There are...
  12. J

    Short Housing

    I've been appraising real estate for about 15 years. Sold RE before that. There is a good deal of truth in what you say and I agree with your point, but this market has some good fundamentals too. One is household formation, due in part to recent (past 10 years) wave of immigration. The...
  13. J

    Trading Journal - July

    lon gsho t, Ar eyou drun k ? Ho wcome yo ualways post li ke yo uare3sheets to the wi nd?
  14. J

    Trading Journal - July

    Maybe because most of the speculative money was in the Naz and it has already corrected a good bit more than the Dow and S&P 500.
  15. J

    Interesting signs of a real bottom in the bear market

    There won't be a bottom...at least not like most people are looking for. You know, the ones where we spike down on huge volume for one day and then its off to the races...again. Those were just "corrections" in bull market. The fact that EVERYONE is talking about and looking for a bottom tells...
  16. J

    Going to hell in a hand basket

    That was Jim Baker. It preciptated the 1987 crash. The reason the market is getting all shizoid is not Bush, imo. Its the congress. Can you imagine? The people that run the post office and amtrak and medcare and the district of columbia want to straighten out big bidness and make em pay...
  17. J

    indicator showcase

    The whole point of any indicator is that you know what you're looking for. Take any good trader and take away his/her favorite indicator. Now give them another indicator. As long as they know what it measures, I would bet they will be profitable in short order. The indicator is only a tool. I...
  18. J

    the trend is up, market has bottomed.

    Please stop! I'm up to my ass in bottoms! I can't take anymore bottoms! Everytime I buy a bottom, another one shows up and I buy that one too! I have one helluva collection of fine bottoms.
  19. J

    Lowry 90% down day update

    I wish I could remeber where I read this, but it goes something like (paraphrasing) "the market will do whatever it has to, to take the most money from the most people"
  20. J

    Short term (scalping) strategy?

    Sell the greed and buy the fear. Seriously, this will show up on charts as the little spikes you see on a 1-5 minute chart. You need real good volume (+10,000,000 per day) and fairly narrow spreads.
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