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A slightly off-topic thought but related: A lot of traders have gone the automated systems route since the bubble burst. They really don't need to do much more than to turn it on and monitor for a crash or a software glitch. Who needs an office under these circumstances?

The risk is why I was thinking of selling the Sept/Oct spread if I were going to get in on this trade.

Martin, What's the "normal" ratio per BTU for gas/oil. What would be a seasonally typical price point. I have to admit I know nothing about this market -- but would like to learn. Thanks, Sam

CNBC says it's just short covering in the front month. You could always spread Sept/Oct for a "lower" risk trade -- looks like -.25 x -.21 on IB right now. Not a big believer in CNBC but there you have it. :)

My observation was that Woodie wasn't really profitable -- there were lots of bad calls there that got "covered" up. The rules kept changing as well. What may have worked before I got there certainly didn't work while I was there. During the time I was there, he went from minute to tick charts...

looks like a pitch site to me...

Smoker, I'm not a "power" user by any means. I fooled with the old SmartQuant and played with the newer Quantstudio for awhile before deciding the time required to port stuff over and rebuild what I already have in production just wasn't worth it. That's less a comment on the product and more...

no volume...

It's been quantstudio for awhile and it's in the $5K range with source code if memory serves. I can't find a link to a Mechanica web site. Does anyone have one?

OIH is now flat for the year and about 15 points off the November lows -- where crude was @ $55/barrel. It certainly looks short term oversold. A break of the technical support at 130ish has got to look attractive to shorts. Just have to wait and see what the weekend and Monday brings.

Have you established a track record in your own mind on this? I was watching OIH and saw 130 as the point of pain but didn't press it as it was just a thought as opposed to a verified plan.

Standard Taleb. I'm sure he is one of the go-to guys when things look rocky.

It does look like a lot of profit taking is occurring in some sectors. OIH has been a daily surprise to me for the last week. Obviously, tech is going to be a bust as far as upside momentum for the second half -- but that's not a new thought. The kicker is going to be the Fed meeting...

I think the discussion is getting taken out of context? :) My initial comment was a musing on whether there was more to this than met the eye -- i.e. a prelude to a larger move by the US on Iran or some such with a concommitant move by Israel to create a buffer zone in advance. Since I wrote...

Fair enough.

Your argument to which I was responding was as follows: If someone wanted to drive you into the sea and instead you got the upper hand and drove your enemy into the sea - would that response be proportional enough for your taste? What I suggested was that the Palestinians don't have that...

Yes. I agree with this. As I said in one of my other posts, I think the problem is how do you move a quasi feudal setup to a capitalist/democratic society. When Hamas came into power they basically just traded one feudal lord for another...:( I don't really know the details on this one...

Capabilities show you what a proportional response should look like. Since the Palestinians can't drive Israel into the sea it hardly makes sense to do so to them does it? That's just talk. But we're too general here anyway. We'd have to distinguish between the militia's that are actively...

What would you propose?