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In the end, all comes down to surface for me, not so much about vol at strike touch. Since I'm hoarding wings whenever I can get them for cheap, the only question I have is how much carry I can get ATM to finance them. On the other hand the scenario is a bet on a tail event where you want to...

I'm talking about fair value/midpoint. Offers are insane in these situations because the MMs already sold all their wings

Thanks for the input. I try heuristics more than models and I decided to do so a long time ago for my day to day business especially when it comes to modelling forward curves. Callibrating a model is for me nothing else than an overfitted backtest which might be nice to understand the dynamics...

So this is a bit advanced, I'm not expecting too much. But perhaps there is a whiz-kid on ET who fiddled around with this, too. Option skew exists because asset prices have fat tails, we all know that. Indices fall faster than they go up, vice versa for NatGas. So you could go to your trusted...

Are you sure it's not from Warren Muppet?

which kind of data did you research the profitability on? Are derivatives involved or is it spot. Which market?

Here comes the margin call :D:D:D

No, would not touch it. You only had a profit factor of 2.2 and a max drawdown of 24% (!). Long BTC outright had more sharpe than your strategy (2.8)

your net profit is 5...but it should have been 10. It's about risk management, not taxes. If you asume risk from your entry point instead of marked to market you don't need to worry about paying taxes, because you won't make money in the long run.

You lost 5 bucks because you had 5 bucks more before it dumped

Every time you post a limit order to a public order book, you are providing an option to the market. As with every option, the seller needs to receive a premium for taking the risk. That's why the maker receives and the taker pays

So you mean it's better to just wing it, bet the farm and hope you end up in the forbes list? When you have edge, trade as small as possible and as often as possible. When you don't, bet once and then never again. Your choice

retail day traders, correct. No luck, tens of thousands of trades. The market is that easy

On the surface you may be right but I beg to differ here. You only read the stories of the big shots who put on a fat trade and came out ahead. But you never hear the stories of the grinders, who are there day in day out and make a decent living by collecting profits each and every day. I know...

I don't think you are set for this venture. No bashing, just honest advice. Trading is not like mastering some craft that you learn once and then you're set for life. It's THE toughest competition you can get into. Once you stop learning and adapting, you're pretty much dead. Be prepared to...

I don't know if I should roll on the floor laughing or cry in despair. Trading is more like professional sports than anything else

No. You might also ask how likely it is to make a living as a sports professional and how long it might take. Every day can be your last day. Injury, lack of talent, tough competition, sick during drafting. Now you're 30 pounds overweight and you work out at a gym where your trainer is 63 and...

This is a simple beginners mistake. You only account for probability of success but not for outcome when losing vs outcome when winning. You confuse W/L ratio with profit factor. Market is random when it comes to where it goes but it's not random when you find trades where your risk is 80cts...

the probability that you blow up after one year is greater than the probability of making 1k/day after 10 years

Use twitter. No need to pay for a news service that is just as slow and inacurate. That said, there are automated news crawlers for literally anything out there on twitter. These post in realtime as soon as the piece hits the tape. If you're looking for context, twitter is unbeatable when it...