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I agree with most of the answers. I think it is a number of things. I suspect the Japanese are assuming that the US domestic manufacturers are eventually doomed. US manufacturers have no competitive automobiles and Peak Oil means that the market for light trucks will contract back down to...

I don't understand how "political tensions" can contribute to an elevated petroleum price for so long. Oil on international markets is settled with physical delivery. At best, a *change* in expectations of political problems causing supply cutoffs would result in temporarily higher demand...

The actual market for petroleum between EU and US is quite free and efficient. The price-at-pump in both countries has significant components of taxes which are entirely uncomparable. When you take them both out and look at the underlying economic price, the cost is quite similar. Only...

I think that going short on gold and oil would be timely when there are "trade commodities from home" informercials on TV, like the explosion of such with real estate. Hasn't happened yet. When gold trading or gold coins are on the lips of your local bartender, get out. Real estate is...

US corn (maize)-based ethanol is not thermodynamically or economically feasible. ADM's success in that business is entirely due to taxpayer money. Why all the squealing about "welfare cheats" and nothing about ADM? The fundamental physics of sugar cane based ethanol is far better and...

Well, wouldn't it be much easier to impose a maximum wage of $5 an hour? Excepting of course Skull and Bones members, friends and relatives of the Congressional majority party, major campaign donors and any executive of an exchange-listed company.

The purpose of a centralized currency exchange is not just liquidity. It is regulatory power and a credible threat (and actual pursuit) of international criminal prosecution for cheating. The facts that the banks really don't want it sounds like a great reason there needs to be one...

Except for the "minor" fact that the Fed started increasing interest rates relentlessly at the beginning of 2005? In that sense the fundamentals can be quite different as the Fed was not close to an extremely low level. So unless you see Fed funds going to 7%....

Sorry for double post. A large fraction of petroleum use is burned as transportation. I found a 2004 publicatoion from the EIA. Transportation use is 13.6 mbpd (million barrels per day), all industrial uses (unclear what this means) is 5.1, "residential/commercial" 1.3, and Electric...

huh? gasoline imports are not banned. After Katrina, a fair number of overseas refineries sent their product to the US.

A great, and frightening article: http://www.energybulletin.net/15126.html A quote: I think I remember that prediction, and yes it did happen before Dec 2005.

How does huge speculation work in oil markets to push prices well beyond supply and demand? On the open markets, crude is settled with physical delivery. Where is the oil going? Storage is maxing out and pretty small compared to consumption overall. Responding to another post...

Sorry for the double post. What I believe in: 1) Massive biofuel expansion, including genetically modified crops. 2) massively increased fuel efficiency standards Require all spark-ignition engines be automatic flex-fuel (any gasoline/alcohol mix, tank per tank), exactly as is done in...

coal liquefication can work and could produce fuel competitive at (wild ass guess) $6/gallon. But it is catstrophic climate crack. You end up making substantially more CO2 injected into the atmosphere for every unit of useful fuel compared to pumping Saudi's 72-virgin delight. Biofuels...

Of course this is entirely delusionary. Consumers respond to increases in prices in goods they want by substituting ones that they want less. If you go from steak at $20/lb to catfood at $1/lb---is that "deflation"? Bet the wonks would imagine so. Similarly like how there are...

Assume that stock underlying is positive sum return. Furthermore, the stock's volatility is a negative ("psychic") return in the sense that it is less desirable than a time-consistent spacing of returns. Then the entire collection of options outstanding distribute positive return and...

I also don't understand the logic, though the attitude is understandable. The attitude is, of course, incorrect because it's based on a (potentially) incorrect assumption. For instance, take the case of a person who goes gambling in a casino. They know that the house has the edge, hence...

Any reason that pricing a commodity in one nominal fiat currency versus the other makes any difference at all? No technical economic reasons have yet been posted since the first page. Only an assertion that "USD must be held", apparently unwillingly, to pay for oil. Again that makes no...

For those who think the USD will crash if somebody makes transactions in Euros: please give a reason. Nearly all the conspiracy theory about the Iranian Oil Bourse has simply asserted that if the oil is nominally priced in euros---then that's it. No other reasoning given. Please give...

I assume the previous poster was being sarcastic about shutting down the NYMEX. In reality, it is very important---not the short term futures which gyrate---but the long term ones. These can help an alternative energy company get real serious financing and actually do something about this...