Search results

Not all of us in here are traderz. :D

I think about this problem sometimes. Best solution I've yet seen (aside from fading the signals of an overoptimized system) is to 1. Switch between systems based on equity curves at the present time (still based on the past few trades, however) 2. Detect market conditions that...

SP500 daily remains in an up trend and is prone to keep going up.

+++ I spent a couple years learning how to take the other side of that trade. When it works, it work$$$$ :D

When I still followed Prechter, I noticed he made the same mistake of putting too much emphasis on arbitrary patterns and fundamentals, rather than the concrete wave counts (and there can be more than one possible count, in many cases) and minimizing risk. Right before the markets broke out...

"How will I get in after it starts and how will I minimize my downside if I'm wrong?"

+++ Totally agree. Another reason is focusing on how much money they can make, rather than minimizing how much they may lose on any given trade.

Probably because the other 4% either start up or get hired. Seen another way, they probably do not trade like the small trader to begin with. The difference being professionalism and low risk behavior.

I'm pretty sure the 5% are not willing to lose their life savings, so they never risk it to begin with. Even Jack Schwager, after interviewing dozens of these 5%'ers, noted that they all had one thing in common - they were able to trade low risk ideas.

Minor update for anyone who is curious........ The trend program is holding up nicely in the latest market action and has made new equity highs. It was tested on 13 years of hourly data. I also had a 1 year version and it has failed the forward test with a flat equity result over the past...

I'm seeing something similar in my long term analysis. Prechter Jr. may be seeing it too, but his calls would actually have credibility if he posted his entry, stop and position size like a real trader. He does appear to be a good contrary indicator, however.

In all likelihood, the only one who is angry in here is you, and perhaps bwoliknsky. The rest of us are like "WTF" :D

elliot wave analysis, while not explaining why, does state that corrective waves come in threes while impulse waves come in fives.

Agree. I've noticed what appears to be a higher signal to noise ratio in up moves compared to down. I'm consistently seeing higher p/f's on the long side, no matter how I tune my systems.

Perhaps if you focus on protecting your capital rather than finding the secret to profits, they just might reveal themselves. "There are old traders and bold traders, but very few old, bold traders" -Seykota

Traders would then be trying to surf the waves created by their own paddling. :D

I believe it has something to do with what engineers call "entropy" - the tendency of energy to move to increasing states of disorder as the number of conversions progress. Winning traders do the opposite of this process - money flows from the many to the few. Simply reversing the signals...

The signal in the market is caused by more than just other traders. Hedgers, company stock issues and purchases, The Bernanke, and Mutual Fund Mondays being a few examples. Noise, on the other hand......... :D

What can I say... I have trouble understanding JH's explanations of market analysis so I have to settle for EW. I also have trouble understanding Scientologists. Maybe if I tried some shrooms I could finally see it....... :D

What a guy. It pays to know how to ask. :D