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Ok, I'm going to throw some ideas out there of how I feel the markets and the economy might play out over the next year and a half. I'm not "predicting" anything or saying this will definitely happen, but based upon the political and economic frameworks in existence today, I have a gut feeling...

Hyperinflation is like 50%-100% a year. We're not going to have hyperinflation.

Ever read about Newton's work with sniffing chemicals during his alchemist days? While Newton was a logical genius on some things, he was a comple crackpot on others. Every time I hear anybody use Newton as an authority figure on religion because of his theological beliefs and connecting that...

Since we're touting our own calls, I'd like to point out mine: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=112834 You'll notice that I pretty much had that spot on. :p The technology short I recommended went up almost 30% in a matter of a couple of days after I made that call...

Price appreciation. Yields go down and bond prices go up. It's very plausible that anybody buying bonds are counting on declining interest rates which will create capital gains opportunities on the prices.

IMO, the worst case scenario is that we are 10-15% away from the bottom in an ETF like UYG. I'm not waiting for that bottom. I'm taking positions now because the upside potential is well worth the risk. Secondly, something that is being overlooked in this thread and those who are "bashing"...

Well yeah...any "index" that you look at is going to be correlated with the market as a whole. Like I said, you aren't going to find any individual stocks that are perfectly negatively correlated with the stock market. What you can find are companies that are in the best position to excel...

Well no stocks of companies are "perfectly" negatively correlated with the markets. But if you're looking for the best opportunities in a bear market, you need to ask yourself, "is this a company that will attract business in a bad economy". As an example, car parts manufacturing companies...

Or UYG. Same diversification, but higher volatility for larger potential gains.

I guess I should have grabbed more. This stock popped nicely to 7.80 in 3 days. The only disadvantage is that it's not a really liquid stock. (But that's one of the reasons I liked it too).:eek:

Ok, we're arging semantics, but IMO, they are important semantics. Your probability of winning is 100%. Technically, it's incorrect to use "odds" interchangeably with "probability". People do it (and as long as both parties agree on the definition, then that's fine), and that's where the...

You're referring to probabilities of winning, not the odds of any one (or two) games. The news article was outlining the odds of winning two lotto games, not the probabilities as that would be drastically different for every single player based upon their playing history. So the news article was...

Are you confused about something? The number of times you play the games have nothing to do with the odds of winning. What does the fact that they played 124,000 tickets have to do with the odds of the games themselves? Each game is an independent event and in this case, the "independent"...

I guess to tie my "random" post back in :D , if you were designing a lotto game let's say, the statistical anomaly that somebody actually does win the lotto twice for all intents and purposes can be "ignored". "Theoretically", every player could win twice, but the odds of that happening are...

To be technically correct, if you're only referring to each game individually, your odds are the same every single time you play the lottery (whether you've won or not), they don't change game to game. The probability changes game to game the more you play. But the odds of winning the game...

You are completely wrong. People have won the lottery twice. The chances of that happening are 1 in trillions, yet people have won it twice. So would you say that winning the lottery twice is not random since the odds of it happening are beyond comprehension...

Frankly, I think you're one of the best posters here PTF. I've learned a lot from reading your posts. More great points from you!!:)

I agree. I don't consider it ass kissing either (as long as its sincere). I actually distinguish the difference (in all facets of life) between ass kissing and respecting somebody who can help you along in life. The best salespeople are those that can best respect their clients while also...

reread my post. I essentially just said the same thing. *wink*. My point is, even when working for somebody else, there's a difference between ass kissing just for the sake of ass kissing and actually utilizing somebody in a sincere manner who is in a position to help you out.

lmao...how true it is!!