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I.am.biased.in the.sense I have thought.for quite some time the Euro will crumble eventually. Eventually could mean years. Or it could mean next month. This is my opinion and nothing more.

I don't know. But I would guess if it is a fact and Germany says tough luck, its pretty big.

I am going to.wait and.see what happens in the first 30-60 minuttes tomorrow. If the Euro is walking forward to the edge of the cliff and Germany is fed up with propping up the Euro, I would think any negative reaction to S&Ps rating will be very short term given what's going.on in Europe...

even though unconfirmed rumor it makes too much sense. I think Spain is on the hook too. problem Central Bankers not exactly the full disclosure types - meaning there is probably more trouble brewing that has yet to be disclosed.

since your time stamps are within 2 minutes of each other you probably didn't see volente's comment prior to replying ti my post which is informative and relevent to our exchange of posts. Yes, please, anything I say I would advise strongly that you get confirmation from someone else and do...

if on the off chance, and I don't think it will happen (but possible)' treasuries decline dramatically and stay declined then all bets are off. the world economy will be in for it.

given the extent of volatility last week, AFTER we didn't default, makes it hard for me to believe that Goldie and some of the others didn't know. At this time I see pretty much the same thing as you - may not even go as far south as 1120-1130. UNLESS the market discounts other information...

I think we are in agreement. I don't think Asia owns the west. it's the economic equivalent of nuclear deterrent between the U.S. and China imo. china bought at least trillion of Treasuries in my opinion over paid for them simply to keep our dollar strong relative their currency, in order to...

the long bond market doesn't need an S&P downgrade to raise interest rates on long treasuries or any type of treasuries. the bond market controls interest rates with or without a change of ratings. Could be the bond market reacts negatively as a result of the downgrade and the price of long...

I honestly didn't think they would do it. After they reached an agreement not to alow to default, iI thought they'd drop the idea. after all S&P has within the last few years has major credibility issues. what this means to the stock and bond market, I have not a clue.

I was thinking of more of the outliers like 10/87 or the crash of late 08 carrying into the first quarter of 09. But, in general I agree with your premise. Even if we win, we are just riding coat tails of the big boys.

Good trade!

Where is the origination of this "talk." If you are getting it off of CNBC or one of their counterparts, most all their sponsors want one thing - for people to keep money in the stock market - that's how they make their money. Most all the people they interview want one thing - for people to...

But upon occassion houses act under tremendous fear and panic also.

So are you saying, "no scaling in." which is a common practice among traders?

But I should probably qualify as to calling tops or bottoms or sustained long term moves in any direction, I don't know any more than anyone else. I look at the long term as a backdrop; but I live in the intermediate and primarily the short term.

And may I add, you were full disclosure - totally honest. You didn't run and hide or try to fudge anything once trades were made.

Actually, if the VIX rockets further, I'll do what I don't normally do and sell a SPY straddle or two - being ready to buy wings as conditions warrant. Trading within the context, I don't see this bear market as a 2009 bottom; but more like a 2010 bottom and bottom range.

Another thing I am looking at is on the SPX the 50 day SMA is pointing down and close (15-20 points) to the 200 day SMA which is flattening out. Will the 50 day SMA bounce or cross below the 200 day SMA? It's not something one would look at every day, its a long term thing - but they are close.

Thanks!!!:)