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The Goldman Sachs buying was most likely for a customer account, which is none other than the PIMCO machine, they were buyers initially at 106-15 down to 14 in the pit (along with a bunch on the screen), and then again as we shot off the lows in the last hour or so of the day from 106-06 all the...

Yes, we did finally see a nice widening of 10Y swaps today out to 54.25 from 53.5 or so yesterday over the 10yr Treasury. Surprisingly the mortgage guys weren't active today in the options but were active in the June 105 puts earlier this week. The most interesting play out of the options is...

Perfect, now they have to start pricing some of that crazy talk.

In terms of 10Y vs. Bund spread the big cash levels from one of the dealer commentaries late last week were 95 basis points and 115 basis points (TY over). Late last week their outlook was for wider spreads and I would imagine they haven't changed their opinion that 115 basis points will be...

They also rolled their May 109 puts in the 30yr options into the May 108 puts 5,000 times in the last minute right before the bell. Again though these are hedge levels, not saying we can't go through them, but we may not stay through them forever, at least never long enough for him to take...

We got some very nice spike lows right after the statement was released and small short seemed to be the play going in, and if one was quick enough to hit some bids at least until we traded to 106-25, which was a level where we traded forever after making those spike lows for the year at...

In terms of the roll, which was around -1.5 basis points, that means the WI 2-year is traded at a 1.5 basis point premium to the current two-year note. Thus, if one wants to roll an outstanding long position say from the current two-year into the one that was issued today they are slightly...

Got my ass kicked on Friday trying to fade the long end. The long end trade has been incredibly tough this year. You get punished for buying and selling breakouts early in the year. Now on an options expiration day we actually breakout (even with the big boys like Goldman short at least...

No, biggest guys faded that whole rally in euros and two-year during the repo squeeze and the Medley report plant. They felt Fed was going to 5% the whole way. Even in these down moves they still prefer flatteners.

The short end barely priced in 5.25% and didn't even think about 5.50%. I do agree though, best opportunity for getting long is in red month Euros right now, probably past mid-year.

I also wouldn't underestimate the tendency of the Fed to overshoot during their hike/cut cycles. Looking at what is priced in to the market (and dealers are watching this closely for opportunities) in Eurodollars/Fed Funds, no one is discounting that the Fed may overshoot to 5.25% or 5.50%. At...

It would make sense that long-term rates would rise over the next few years, Greenspan and Bernanke seem to have also been led to believe that over the years, but doesn't mean it will happen. I think the only two things that change the path of long-term rates dramatically are: (1) a secular...

I think the bond market sees a stable policy (the Fed leaving rates alone during a transitionary period from either a rate hike or rate cut cycle) as a final push to contract risk premiums (flatten the yield curve or flatten/narrow any spread product such as Swaps, Agencies, etc.). These final...

Ha, not even central bankers understand why long-term rates are so low, we are in trouble when the Fed signals end game and the yield curve massively inverts during their pausing cycle before shifting monetary policy towards easing. Even though the inverted yield curve and continued flattening...

Big NOB trading in ten year pit, 5000 bought so far working a bunch, was short NOB as hedge few weeks ago on big cash unwind, starting to cover here, has at least 10,000 more coming is my guess (sold 17,000 two weeks ago).

All of the option trades occured at 1:58 P.M. at the exact same time only on the screen. The guy bought 500 lots in any out of the money put that was worth less than 10 ticks and sold any out of the money call that was a 1 tick only bid. This was done in every month across various strikes, at...

My guess is because of the timing it may have been an option local who had blown out and had his positions automatically liquidated after the 2pm pit settlement prices were disseminated. On the other hand, it could have been sneaky paper waiting till after the close to execute a very bearish...

No idea who it was, definitely not the Japanese, they bailed on 25,000 of their May 106 puts in the ten year at a decent loss. The order was very strange after the close, it was mostly 500 lots executed instantaneously, buying any put that was offered and selling any call that was bid...

Another crazy day with everything screaming to the upside, began with the 10yr flattening the curve and breaking through some pretty solid resistance. For the rest of the day the 2yr led the way and the curve only flattened by 2 basis points. Another 20 tick rally in the ten year and the curve...

The reason for the blip on the chart was because the roll from the old 30yr to the recently auctioned 30yr was about -13 basis points. Thus, if one was to roll the last 30yr into the new one they had to pay up in price equivalent to 13 basis points lower in yield, which is why the bid-to-cover...