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  1. L

    Key reversal

    Broker boy got it right. Big gap down. This certainly looks more and more like a deflationary start even if it is self-fulfilling. We've had two big unfilled gaps to the downside which means there are no buyers (yet?)
  2. L

    Key reversal

    True. But big movements like we had often retrace a considerable amount and I would rather reload at a higher level. I'm waiting for the next catalyst for another leg down. The last week of June and 1st week of July is frequently a short term bottom for the markets though so we could see more...
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    Credit Suisse?

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324577904578555460518716622.html Swiss Parliament Rejects U.S. Banks Deal Credit Suisse has set aside 295 million Swiss francs ($320.7 million) to eventually settle U.S. tax matters. With the recent market weakness and a soon to be settled...
  4. L

    Key reversal

    Enough palaver. DEFLATION I'll say it again DEFLATION. BB scratched his head and said his inflation targets are far from being hit at 2%. See here http://inflationdata.com/Inflation/Inflation_Rate/CurrentInflation.asp All the CB's have expanded their balance sheet to unprecedented...
  5. L

    Key reversal

    The larger the dislocation in the least amount of time brings the greatest ability to arbitrage the most money. Once one understands this condition the rest is execution. Fact: 1. Market was extended. Fact: 2. A fundamental change in market temperament occurred. Fact: 3...
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    Steps to Become a Master Trader

    http://www.tintoyarcade.com/products/Paddle-Ball-Game-Deluxe-Classic-Wood.html :D You can remit a million dollar donation minus the $3.98 for the paddle to: The Nature Conservancy http://www.nature.org/about-us/index.htm
  7. L

    Black Monday Oct 31, 2011

    I see little to support a crash on Monday. It looks more like a sideways but volatile day setting up likely bound by the previous days trading ranges. I think there might be some surprising reversal on the bond market as they got punished. With that kind of beating an abusive market might let...
  8. L

    Buying frenzy. China bought a huge 10% of world gold output in 10 days.

    I think it wasn't fleshed out enough perhaps. Are you saying that in the event that one or more currencies revert to a gold based reserve that it would be in that sovereignty's best interest to accumulate gold at a reduced basis? Are you saying that naked short selling occurred and that to...
  9. L

    Buying frenzy. China bought a huge 10% of world gold output in 10 days.

    A couple of thoughts. The FED has been monetizing. They do not have to "Pay for" buying DEBT. They just add zeros to their balance sheet. They can let the debt obligations expire "worthless" on their sheet and/or collect the premium from the party who owes the Debt. As the world's de...
  10. L

    Buying frenzy. China bought a huge 10% of world gold output in 10 days.

    Does anyone really think we're on a path to a gold reserve system currency again? I find that highly unlikely. It would require a complete reset of modern monetary policy. You know metals are doomed when a new ETF "Platinum" is introduced. When an ETF is rolled out it usually means sheep...
  11. L

    Key reversal

    No edge holding over the weekend. In fact too risky. Wait for some action Sunday night and into the am session on Monday. Could go either way as we could drop a lot further before the FED would need to step in. Remember we are still 140 pts above the open and low for 2013 and volatility has...
  12. L

    Key reversal

    From FT "Citigroup stopped accepting orders to redeem underlying assets from ETF issuers, after one trading desk reached its allocated risk limits. One Citi trader emailed other market participants to say: “We are unable to take any more redemptions today . . . a...
  13. L

    Key reversal

    I guess we think alike. Thread: Buying frenzy. China bought a huge 10% of world gold output in 10 days. 06-20-13 06:44 PM Metals were so bubbled up the balloon has a long way to deflate. Commodities are deflating as the world is in a recession. We are deflating the largest credit...
  14. L

    Key reversal

    Hmmmmmmmmm. Quad witching is usually a tame affair but a retracement is likely in order. No way do we do a meltdown tomorrow. I'm with you a rally of some sorts.
  15. L

    Key reversal

    Straddles are volatility breakout trades. You buy a put and a call at the same price. If a volatility breakout occurs you make money but price needs to move a lot. At 1650 in the Spoos in the context of the biggest FED meeting of the year so far and a bracketed range of 1600 to 1700 and only...
  16. L

    Key reversal

    There are many markets. This was a global rout for sure. If you can pull money in then you're doing OK. I appreciate the criticism but honestly if anyone including myself could trade as well as this thread they'd be happy. Exit. I massage my positions and now it is so profitable unless...
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    Buying frenzy. China bought a huge 10% of world gold output in 10 days.

    Metals were so bubbled up the balloon has a long way to deflate. Commodities are deflating as the world is in a recession. We are deflating the largest credit bubble ever. Metals are a good SHORT until the bubble deflates and then sure up we go again. When? I'd think right around the time...
  18. L

    Key reversal

    I let one of the puts run so today is a good day, also as noted I was already short and hedged into the FED on another position so yes I am managing a nice profitable short now. The next question is 1600 close on the quad witching? This gap down looks like an exclamation mark!!! That...
  19. L

    Key reversal

    Long PUT skewed straddle @1650 1.2 per side. 2 puts 1 calls 100 x 100 x 1.2 x 3 = 36000 ((2.4 x 2) + (.25 x 1)) x 10000 =50500 (50500-500(commissions)) -36000/36000 14000/36000 =39% return for day trade with limited risk as theta rented for only one half day Event trade
  20. L

    Key reversal

    50% one day return
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