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Haven't read Olson's speech yet but I am assuming it's the same discourse than Lacker's and Kohn's.

Excellent remark but in his March 20th speech Bernanke said <i>To the extent that the decline in forward rates can be traced to a decline in the term premium, perhaps for one or more of the reasons I have just suggested, the effect is financially stimulative and argues for greater monetary...

You're right but the pieces that constitute the cycle you described don't follow each other in a clear cut sequence. They tend to overlap significantly because of the nature of expectations. Stocks will increase with interest rates for as long as rates have not reached a point that is believed...

May 10th and June 28/29. There's no doubt that rates will go up by at least 50 more basis points. The question I have is will the discount rate go up by 50 basis point in one shot during the June 28/29 meeting or the one after that? Long term treasuries are much weaker than short term...

His speech is almost identical to Jeffrey Lacker's upbeat speech on the US economy a couple of weeks ago, and to what markets have been pricing. The economy can deal with higher energy prices but the pool of unused resources is becoming thin so if the current pace of growth is maintained...

I live in the Raleigh area and my favorite place is Chapel Hill where house prices doubled in the past few years, so I'm stuck in Pittsboro (south of Chapel Hill) where prices haven't moved since 2000.

That's the part that really sucks (and is completely unecessary) about this contest. It is put in at 10pm the next day but I think it would make more sense if the order would be traded at the opening price instead of the closing price of the following day. If for example, you choose a stock...

economic growth

Hey Tony, you're right. We all agree and not just philosophically.

That's exactly what I trade: stories. They tell me very early when I'm wrong or right by comparing market reactions to scenarios. I am not a big fan of neural networks as they are just another form of curve fitting. Also, the "neurons" are mathematical operators that translate numerical...

Ahem. I believe the <i>shit</i> and yet, I haven't had one loosing trade so far this year. My posts contain sufficient details to demonstrate it's the case, and generally speaking a double-digit return is a bad year for me. Another thing one might notice from my posts that contain a lot of...

Maybe for the same reasons long bond yields are rising to multi year highs.

I see bonds somewhat going sideways but at the same time loosing another point by early May. The bulls won't get in before the second week of May because: 1. The market is still pricing strong growth and higher inflation; 2. Next week is a 3 1/2 day week for bonds; 3. Last two weeks of April...

Thanks.

I too was not predisposed to refute the official version -- served in the Air Force; trusted US foreign policy; voted for Bush in 2000 and had always voted republican; donated money to families of 911 victims; participated to a vigil; initialy cheered the invasion of Afghanistan but by January...

A lot of people from New York in the top 50. I haven't made it there yet.

Would be nice to know what's in that black box, wouldn't it?

You're making a good point Whister but the information collected by the 911 skeptics point to a gradual evolution of events and alliances that started a long time ago. The PNAC movement had already convinced Clinton on the necessity to attack Iraq and Afghanistan but at a time when the public...

A rule that would be easy to implement to avoid the lucky dart problem would be that no more than x% of the portfolio can be invested in one stock. At that point, it would be more difficult for the meek to win with his strike of luck.

Just hope nothing happens on 6/6/6. I'll be looking for unusual put options activity on the days prior to that.