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Treasury.gov is a good source for yields of bills, notes, bonds. Anyone trade the exchange TUT spread? I dont but am working on that. The entirencurve , 2 yeartomten year is falling but 2 under 10 spread is flattening steady and smooth. The 10 year yield is decreasing more that the 2 year...

I read that rally was discounting expected increases in stock buybacks proportinate to the size of the corporate tax cuts. Possibly a tailwind from a < 10% cash repatriation bill. As already stated, Healthcare delays and or diminishes the tax thing and its effects on equities Maybe the fed...

Current news speaks of China tightening measures....fiscal and monetary. But damn look at that China/US gov. debt spread drop from around 300bp. To 150bp in 2015. Currency is still selling off even as credit spreads have leveled off. Another country forcing its people to buy risk in lieu of...

Do you think a zero or near zero interest rate world would change some historical relationships he refers to in this 2008 book? Maybe its still all relative and relavant. Thanks for the link.

Corporate credit, gold, DXY, metals, discounted a hawkish, jawboning fed for two weeks prior to this meeting. The fed surprised, disappointed hawks and bears. Price reaction of the aforementioned post-fed is dramatic (yet no follow through yet). The only thing I could see behaving "strange"...

Recency bias. You should look at all the snowy Tuesdays in March prior to FOMC going back to 1913. I dont recall any that year.

Fed is a 500 stock watcher. It looked like they were pissed the FOMC statement was interpreted dovish with a Wed-Fri risk/inflation reaction . The following Monday the odds spiked from 35 BEFORE the jawboning began Tuesday. Animal spirit fears in 500 stocks outweigh PHD level theorems and...

Low US GDP, flattening UStreasury curve, Chna today announces 6.5 expected GDP and other tighter measures. Markets have two weeks to push back against the fed and it will be interesting To watch and hear the fed. What's chances of the SP500 being down .5 % the coming week. Wont that be shockng

Phone service is possibly one fith the cost 20 years ago, high speed internet is above 64Kbaud dial up, 480P on a solid wooden frame TV is bygone, George Bush era discounted USD by 40% I say let's bring back Ma Bell, Compuserve and adjust the 5 VHF/UHF channel rabbit ears and scale the roof to...

I would bet you are not buying where classic TA and its lusers are . Buying near resistance , right? I would bet your winning percentage is high as well.

This post or article seems relavant to this discussion. https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/article-by-pabst.125197/

I think concensus is always there to some degree , there is pressure, otherwise price would be sustained noise without drift. I think it is the frequent , constant , incorrect discounting of the future price in your timeframe that creates opportunity. Yet, this may have little effect on the...

So how big is the notional value of this contract? The volatility of the GC/SI spread likely exceeds that of each leg and will have some extreme days. It trends ,or ranges big , as others have said , I would guess. Deflation, long USD , decent Eco data , rate hike odds increasing is sell GC/SI...

Methuselah became profitable in his 700th year. We should all strive for better.

Since fundamentals are discussed here....all asset correlations today, and possibly for today only , say risk is on and to short the US dollar vs euro and others. Just saying what the market is saying.

NUGT and steel , SLX even after todays moves as the soft doves flutter gently.

A high win rate system is by nature a small time in market system . Anyone find that such a systems exit can serve as confirmation for entry into a system whose time in market is longer yet has a lower win percentage? Managing position size can for each method may yield more money than simpy...

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TEDRATE Dollar shortage due to demand, credit risk /stress, DB (Lehman type) risk are a few possible factors. Do the Mavs and Martins want to weigh in? The bottom and slow grind up does coincide exactly with June 2013 , the start of taper talk and a shift in...

Who is Gary?

Lets say your trading 2 contracts with 5k and on day 1 you have a 25 point move down followed by a day two 25 point move down. "And its Gone"