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I think some people have psychologic problem with crash prediction because market's officials say "It's impossible" because market is efficient. But if you ask people : do you think market is efficient relatively many would say no - if they say yes, then I will ask them why do you trade it is...

:) . I will explain little by little some days. I can't tell everything in just a thread :D And do you know that the brain needs about 18 repetitions of a new concept so as to assimilate it :D

The usual definition of crash is a certain amount of downside drop. This is not my definition. And I have a typology of crashes that is to say there is different kind of crashes. The most classical one is the crash occuring with compression of the time: on my model it means we reached the...

Yoiu said I'm ridiculous ? Well just look at you in a mirror : BY DEFINITION a STOCHASTIC indicator is FUZZY :D So if possible you must use a stochastic model with something else. In fact for trading I only use my fundamental model, but people like "simplicity" (in fact they like...

It is at -5.8 at Friday's close (crash alert is normally under -6 ). I will post the chart here later because it is not practical to do so with excel. I gave the break zone on the other post but that comes from my fundamental ("deterministic" but I don't like this ambiguous term so I prefer...

This is the archive of yahoo message http://groups.yahoo.com/group/harrytrader2000/message/23 "From: harrytrader2000 Date: Tue Dec 31, 2002 9:50 am Subject: Crash alert At yesterday's close we have an alert crash it is the first time ...

Of course are you novice ? Monster rally always occurs on panic . Now I said that it must wait the break of 8200 on my fondamental model which is more deterministic (on the contrary the crashindex is a stochastic model it is fuzzy of course). We didn't break 8200 at that time so what's the...

Break zone under 7780

:D

Gee one day I will understand Daniel :D Well I think myself that just positive exhortation is not enough and that it doesn't serve the guy if it is for supporting some illusion. Nevertheless saying that this guy is an idiot is ok if one say that 80% of traders behave like idiots on market...

No inevitability : sure and since my father was assassinated by communists be assured that I am not a marxist. But I try to stay objective and say that a priori your argument about the marxist has nothing to do with inevitability. Your inevitability has much more to do with pure faith than...

I'm happy you tried to answer objectively. And do you think that history is just random walk and that the present has no connection with the past. Do you think that events history are linear and that sudden wrecks cannot happen ? You are helpless ? Why are you helpless ? Because everybody thinks...

"France can't see how the world has changed" :D Gee when I said that the "problem - reaction - solution" game or method of the nazis is perhaps beginning ! Let's create disorder (the problem creation phase) , let's people protest (the reaction phase) and then present the solution of new...

You seem to know better than me :D

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What theory ? I speak of news can you read at the head of the thread: "Daily News 12/7/98 " Are you a negationist or a revisionist of history just tell me ? So let's not discuss abouth theory but about THIS news. What do you think about THIS news ? I mean THIS news and not another one. So...

I don't bother I just live ! What I bother about is Nazism because it will have concrete consequences on earth not on Heaven. As for Heaven I will know enough soon when I will die :D I don't mean that those kind of questions have no importance. I mean there are things more important...

Hey can you tell me why you blame germans at that time not to see who was Hitler although they deny they didn't know ? What's the difference with some of you today who also deny that this can be although there are some facts ? Because we are still in democracy ? Yeah today but in 5 or 10...

No perhaps it's just that I remind his father :D

Oh I already guess : I must appear as a caricature of Super Mumbo Jumbo :D You don't know Super Mumbo Jumbo ? I just invented him :p