Search results

Absolutely agree. My only point would be that the process to gather evidence (in this case, for the NFA to realize this guy was not going to just rubberstamp any process change like everyone else was doing) takes time. The guy and his firm had a good reputation in the industry, so it was...

The way I read that was the NFA was transitioning from a manual system used by all the companies they regulate to an electronic system for all the companies. As they rolled it out, they had to get approval from each company because of legal issues with the NFA just showing up at someone's bank...

Yes, but the "smart money" was already positioned before those moves attracted the notice of everyone else. That's the essence of "catching a turn". By the time everyone else is thinking "Wow, this move could be big", the "smart money" is looking for an exit and an opportunity to go the other...

No one's reasons for buying or selling ever change. That doesn't mean anything. If a person or a group could remain the smart money long enough, they'd corner the market in whatever they trade. Since market corners are actually extremely rare (so rare that the only modern-day example of an...

Think of the dialectic between the smart money and the dumb money. When does the smart money come in? When the dumb money has pushed the market too far in one direction (because the dumb money came in late on the move in that direction). The smart money is the first group in in the opposite...

I agree with this idea of following the "smart money". You are right that as long as price is public, they can't hide their buying and selling. I consider my edge, in some ways, that I am the "smartest dumb money". That's all I aspire to be and I know exactly how to be that day in and day...

I agree. I have to wonder what the NFA has been spending its budget on while e-verification sat on the back burner.

When I come across stories like this, I try to anticipate what a defense lawyer would say if it came to pass that there was a trial or some type of liability hearing. That said, I'm not arguing on behalf of the NFA or auditors except to the extent that they can say: 1. No verification...

There probably should have been a step to verify with the banks. BUT, if the NFA member is providing the NFA the bank's contact information, there is still the opportunity to provide a fraudulent contact. If I tell the NFA to call so-and-so to verify the bank address and that person is in on the...

What do you investigate them for? Not being able to anticipate how someone could use a process loophole to commit fraud? I suppose that is some kind of negligence, but other than fixing it after the fact (it appears they were in the midst of fixing it with the electronic confirmations), what...

Looks like the verification of the physical mailing address was the point where the process broke down. Not sure how the NFA could have known that address was fake. Still, they should have gamed out scenarios whereby fraud could occur and flagged that step of the confirmation process. The guy...

This is my key takeaway as well. With all of the ability to toss data around these days, how they could have missed requiring the banks to supply that data directly is beyond me. Obviously, whatever costs the banks incur would ultimately be passed on to the account holders, but who cares? That's...

Yes, that is always an option.

Well, as a customer of theirs, I can't say that I'm exactly happy to see them down there, regardless.

From what I read, PFG was supplying allegedly accurate bank data to the NFA. Why would the NFA allow members to self-report on their current bank assets in customer accounts? Shouldn't the bank supply that directly to the NFA? If I'm reading that right, this is a gaping hole in the reporting...

Actually, it depends on how many contracts, but if you can net 2 points/day with 15 contracts, that's $450K (assuming a 6-day trading week, starting Sunday night), pre-commission, which is enough to be in the top 1% of all US incomes. My guess would be that the top 1% of retail trader incomes...

Since automation is the main driver of the decrease in the need for human labor, especially in manufacturing, I think it's most relevant to this topic of elevated unemployment.

Well, what I read you kept saying that humans would just migrate to other industries they would create, like they have in the past. You made the analogy to the people freed up from the horse and buggy industry by the auto industry. I see the problem, though. You think that because the cost of...

8 months might be a bit soon to get outsiders to invest, but perhaps some people you know might be interested. What you trade can make a difference, too, since not all instruments are equally scalable. I'm sure you know that, but you did ask for thoughts.

Well, gee, if that's what you're striving for, I can help you double the "quality" of your rules. Only risk 1% of total liquid net worth on any idea/trade. Oh, wait a second, I think I can double the "quality" of that, too. Yep, only risk 0.5% of total liquid net worth on any idea/trade...