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  1. tommcginnis

    A Look Back at Big Price Moves to Review Indicators and Signals. Both Good and Bad. Pitch In.

    ...so, a MACD is typically set at 26/12/3, right? G. Appel himself would tell you that there is nothing special about those settings. What if 24/9/3 offered better results? What if 30/15/5 kept you out of (more) false entries but kept you in on (more) false exits? Wouldn't that be a good thing...
  2. tommcginnis

    regulations for algo trading?

    Nope. Nothing like that. Individual brokers/platforms do have qualifying questions for you to answer as your account and/or trading rights are established. These vary and are subject to change/modification at any time.
  3. tommcginnis

    Super symmetry of Optionality

    Cassandra had a brother, his name be Overnight!
  4. tommcginnis

    A Look Back at Big Price Moves to Review Indicators and Signals. Both Good and Bad. Pitch In.

    Sorry, but this method assumes that there is something magical, wonderful, and correct about the lookback parameters of the T/A tools used in any particular market. And to be clear, there is no such magic, and no single correct set of parameters. Further, there is no such thing as a stock...
  5. tommcginnis

    Super symmetry of Optionality

    That's a great way to start a Sunday morning. :D
  6. tommcginnis

    Tesla is "headed for the graveyard" - Bob Lutz

    Sorry, Charlie -- but your entire post could've been put up during any quarter that TSLA has been public. I agree that TSLA does not make sense, as a market story. Debt, erratic leadership fugues, lack of performance (til recently)...AND THEN THE OTHERS!! This one has got infrastructure, that...
  7. tommcginnis

    "CoVID-19" is over.

    Not one for news outlets, eh? "Record new cases!" "Increasing death toll!" No? Doesn't sound familiar? :confused: A retired friend of mine just started a second 6-month stint as an ER doc for the Navajo Nation -- she's 'seen it all' and is not one for exaggeration. But her term for the Health...
  8. tommcginnis

    "CoVID-19" is over.

    You do realize that the nastiest spots right now are Florida, Arizona/New Mexico, and Tejas, right? Where even the air-conditioned spaces are well over 59°F? :confused: ["And let's not forget sunshine, eh." No. Let's not forget.]
  9. tommcginnis

    "CoVID-19" is over.

    So, six months ago, the scare began -- and the sciency skeptics were like, "Errrm -- where's the (full) data? We need data. You're publicizing numbers and percentages that you *know* to be incomplete -- and when The Boy Who Cries 'Wolf!' (or who closes down whole economies) gets bloodied by the...
  10. tommcginnis

    What percentage of your net worth do you trade?

    Nope. Without context, the question is meaningless-to-the-point-of-dangerous. • What capital is available? • What menu of alternative uses for available capital exists? • What range of risk&return attach to each alternative? Okay: now your question can be asked without either sadly...
  11. tommcginnis

    IV Smile and Firm Fundamentals

    Think of the option price as an interest rate, and you are the loan officer: you price the loan as you foresee the likelihood of risk in your borrower's future. :thumbsup::thumbsup:
  12. tommcginnis

    Computing a Bayes estimator using Python/R/Matlab/Octave

    Then hit a whiteboard. Use the back on an envelope. Try a burnt stick on a cave wall. But there's more than one way to skin this cat, and the more explicit you make your methods, the more that computation inefficiencies will stand out (or fair computational short-cuts will expose themselves). YMMV.
  13. tommcginnis

    Theta this, theta that

    Ha-hahhhhh -- that cracked me up. :D I would offer one point, though: desultorio still won't post under his own name. Gutless, that. An anonymous lack of respect for the entire forum. (But then, would YOU want to take credit for his posts? :confused::vomit::(:vomit::wtf::confused: Me neither.)
  14. tommcginnis

    Theta this, theta that

    No. You conflate option theta with time value. Speed versus speed*time=distance. Option theta is the rate at which an option loses market value due to the passage of time. Option theta, discounting time travel effects, is always a negative number. Option theta is not something that gets...
  15. tommcginnis

    Computing a Bayes estimator using Python/R/Matlab/Octave

    Pick up an engineering text.
  16. tommcginnis

    Computing a Bayes estimator using Python/R/Matlab/Octave

    Three steps: 1) compute in a spreadsheet, utilizing minimal internal functions and minimal parentheses. 2) re-compute with free use of internal functions and parentheticals. 3) translate either step 1 or 2 into the language of your choice (depending on expediency). I suspect the programmer...
  17. tommcginnis

    Absolute noob - a couple of "big dogs"..

    I remember this sort of feeling. It was greatttttttt. Mind you, it's not Truth. But it was greattttt. Keep in mind that profitable trading is about as exciting as watching paint dry. Day-trading is *fun* -- but don't mistake it for profitable trading. ... ... ... ["Don't be a wet blanket!!"...
  18. tommcginnis

    Cognitive distortions and impact of psychology on making decisions

    And how does that make you feel?
  19. tommcginnis

    Question about risk/reward

    FWIW, three problematically-broad words in finance are spread, risk, and margin. They each have multiple meanings that blend and conflate themselves, and while you can get some clarity from the immediate context, that is *not* a 100% cure. Just here on ET, that lack of clarity probably accounts...
  20. tommcginnis

    Question about risk/reward

    As soon as you sell an option combo, the net (of [total sold: credit] - [total purchased:debit]) is deposited in your account, while your available margin is reduced by [distance between strikes * contract multiplier]. • You don't receive a credit "back". • The distance between short (middle)...
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