Search results

Hussman cutting back on calls, http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc090921.htm Market is overbought, overvalued and overbullish. I will let the trendfollowers keep chasing this market incorrectly thinking their odds are so good despite the historical evidence saying these situations on...

Yeah specially, right after FDR devalued the dollar and the fed started to print money, getting the PPI and CPI to put a large yoy gain and ending the debt deflation price spiral. Sorry the austrians are only correct with deflation where debt is not huge, when debt is everywhere deflation is a...

"First, the pax economica that preceded the current slump was artificial. Large swaths of the economy had stopped doing anything productive, while the rest of the economy was buoyed by rising home values that allowed for spending on a level that was disconnected from what people were actually...

If the money supply is not rising, deflation will take over. With everyone with debt up to their eyeballs you are arguing for a 1930's repeat

I remember Grant talking in 07 how the fed cuts were hurting savers to save people who made mistakes. I will take 4-1 odds that Grant is wrong in monetary policy any day and twice on holidays Furthermore his 'sharp rebounds always follow sharp corrections' is totally contradicted by both the...

Monetary policy run by congress will almost surely be worse and politically oriented. The Fed needs to change how their chairman and voters are set, it needs to be a one fixed term like the ECB with no reapointment. If you think Barney Frank will do a better job with the printing press, think again

Maybe it was a mistake on my part in looking at this rally in a US historical context only. Perhaps I should have looked in a global scale Cant help but to notice that the rallies in the 70's were far weaker and shorter than the ones in the 90's PE ratios were expanding then(90's) and...

You are not missing anything, people are betting the banks will make huge money. Unless the FDIC starts to run a federal lottery to the benefit of commercial banks I dont see that happening

Boy, you know your currency sucks when the peg is not holding even against one of the weakest currencies in the world right now http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aXMxWMYfDYsI

Looks like Geithner still havent implemented his own QE http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/Current/ His checking accounts still havent moved much U.S. Treasury, general Account 25,346 U.S. Treasury, supplementary financing account 199,932 The general account actually...

One stock that I'm long, the chinese company ACTS is flying right now, and I have no idea why(there is no news), about frigging time I benefit from the equity insanity I bought because the company had more cash and marketable securities(Bank CDs) than the entire market cap, there was no...

This is making me confident the equity market is wrong. We are seeing all this better than expected data all over the place and yet USTs have been trending up since June, short term rates futures have been on a nice rally since May and barely went down as equities soared to new highs. Yesterday...

I dont see this as hawkish at all Treasury cash at the fed has zero velocity, excess bank reserves might have low velocity but can be lent out, so the Fed is getting inflation risk from this move(although its probably very small). Given that Bernanke didnt urge Geithner to not do this(I'm...

Geithner is a former FOMC member and now just made a move to increase the monetary base by $200b http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5h1yFbpRakAxYLao_y6lSl6x0nOSAD9AODCR80 This program worked as follows, the treasury would issue bills, take the cash deposit at the Fed...

I'm not sure if this signals exit strategy at all, this will increase the monetary base as the Treasury will be getting their reserves at the Fed and using it to pay off the people who bought the treasury bills. In fact Bernanke mentioned this program as a way to moap excess liquidity during the...

So what?If the system has positive expectation your return will rise along with the drawdown. As a long you are comfortably away from risk of ruin you make more money. Unless you are making 25% pa getting pretty close to being bankrupt of course

The fact that I'm a bit bullish on the dollar and in gold at the same time can be summed in this argument 'Gold will outperform the other members of the DX over the course of this cycle'. At least thats my bet, if it goes down it will come back faster/go down less then say EUR/JPY or other DX...

As far as the dollar goes it seems to do just the opposite of the stock market so since I'm bearish on the market, the dollar might rise soon. The soon part is the tricky one as this rally is on the mometum bubbly phase where everyone goes mental and the game can keep going for a while(like oil...

I like gold as a long I believe the Fed will stay loose and do more QE. The market seems to think the Fed is close to exiting everything and maybe hiking rates. I'm of the opinion they will stay low for longer and will increase their purchase programs in order to try to combat...

Hmm?Bernanke said the US recovery would be lackluster