Search results

"The prospective decline in Treasury bill supply has triggered a rally in the bill market" maybe this is affecting the fed funds market

How are you tracking this?I'm looking at the Fed balance sheet and as of sep 24 the SFP was still at $199b, unchanged w-w

Amusing that they would do that at the time that "The Fed’s preferred price measure, which excludes food and fuel, climbed 0.1 percent from the previous month and was up 1.3 percent from a year earlier, the smallest year-over-year gain since September 2001. "...

I agree, they probably decided to do this at the FOMC meeting, "lets bring out the guns and see how the market takes it" so far they dont buy it

Well, I'm long ES(1047.50) at the touch of this TL here. I figure, either we get another rally and I make some or we lose the TL and my other trades benefit. Will be either a daytrade or a 2-3day trade

Fed funds yesterday 0.07% http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/omo/dmm/fedfundsdata.cfm Dont call the top dude Martinghoul, Are you sure this is quarter end stuff? I checked the historical rate, the last 2Qs didnt had this sort of plunge

Did the pre-release showed up on Bloomberg or Reuters?

I'm wont call a top on front FF futures, the sky is the limit :p

Contrarian indicators aside ES is testing the TL again. It tried to make another run to the highs but it came short, so there is this additional factor(the lower high at 1060)

Kohn a bit hawkish http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/kohn20090930a.htm 'So we must begin to withdraw accommodation well before aggregate spending threatens to press against potential supply, and well before inflation as well as inflation expectations rise above levels...

Well, the market controlled the Fed a bit in 2008. There was the Soc Gen 125bps worth of rate cuts, which the FFF were 'calling' for. Then there was the Global rate cut, which only happened after a bunch of pundits start to call for in the media

I'm sure its for 'personal' reasons though http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a_1IUYYNhlpQ

He is saying that if the Fed were going to raise rates the market would have forecasted in the front FF, until then all the talk about hikes is just hawkish rumor

How did the inflation bulls in 2008 ranked agains the Fed in terms of forecasting?The Fed was right inflation was going to 'moderate' and the $147 oil hyperinflationists were wrong(Including me). Just tell me where all this inflation will come from given that wages(UR rising), credit(Net bank...

Go read the Fed's mandate, they have no obligation to target stock prices. Stocks are not in a bubble too. Both inflation is low and unemployment high, its pretty much textbook to keep rates low as a long that is the case

Rosenberg on hiring "The reason for all this 'imperfection' in initial jobless claims as being less of a tried and true leading indicator in a cycle like this is that it only measures firings. It says nothing about hirings. Even though claims managed to decline 170k from that September...

Just got the 2nd wire for the rest of my deposit. Finally was I'm done with this company. More than 1y later into the receivership

Another trendline test(3rd) after a bounce on the TL. The so called porn pattern, if it breaks the former ET member anekdoten claims there is a 80% chance of a big move to the downside

Chicago PMI just NAPALMED the market

At this point even a giant sized NFP green shoot might not rally this market much BusinessWeek Cover: "Why The Market Will Keep Going Up" http://www.businessinsider.com/business-week-cover-why-the-market-will-keep-going-up-2009-9