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Zero who?

It only does when you're long.

Of course they do, because saying otherwise you'd be implying markets were fully efficient. In that case any type of non-indexed investing and trading would be an exercise in futility.

How many $10m CDS contracts have you bought in your lifetime? I doubt utterly cheap CDS are a good example, representing the typical cost of speculating against the average financial asset bubble. The truth is that using mispriced CDS - thanks to idiotic counterparties at AIG or Japanese...

Summer doldrums. Expect range and volume to pick up in 4-5 weeks time.

Sure, but you put in 1% premium every month/quarter/year because 'sooner or later' the idea will work -- hey it's a bubble after all so it's guaranteed to pop. This can turn into a costly waiting game no matter how cheap the premium may seem. As always, timing matters and the bubble vision...

Bass' fund is a beautiful example for one of these 'I have this great asymmetric payoff trade, this is a no-brainer' ideas gone haywire. There's no guarantee the trade will not incur a severe loss of capital even if premium is seemingly 'cheap' and something is 'obviously a bubble'.

See that's the difference between you and Ralphie. You're both assholes, but Ralphie is tounge-in-cheek half of the time and doesn't take himself too seriously. You on the other hand think you're hot shit and everybody is supposed to kiss your feet for sharing your wisdom to us mortals. GTFO.

No, as there are no appropriate future contracts for most of the components of BOND.

And when new money comes during a slight drawdown before a new run-up it will increase performance. The aggregate effect on performance is likely negligible over time.

Nothing wrong with adding to a profitable position. I don't see a problem your problem.

Remember the academics and central bankers giving sound advice to Japan on how to cure their malaise over 10 years ago. The same guys quietly turned into proponents of bailing out bank bond holders. When the SHTF overseas they prescribe tough medicine, when it's in front of their own doorstep...

Yes I gradually got stopped out out most equity long positions, also reduced overall gross exposure. I am now approx. 15% net long (25% long, 10% short) equities (US and emerging markets). Still about 200% long across the major global bond futs. Obviously this nice run can reverse and implode...

So much for 'top ticking' long bonds and EURUSD. Ralphie is the type of guy that is very loud when he's shitting on people but becomes very quiet when eating humble pie.

You keep bringing up dividends on stocks like WMT and IBM which yield about as little or even less than the S&P 500. Why so?

It appears Germans don't mind paying; they just hate having little control over how it is spent. They transferred about 1.2+ trillion EURO from West to East after their reunification 1990. That's about 50% one year's worth of GDP. A harmonized tax and social system assured that nobody on the...

Imbalances (in productivity, wealth, GDP/capita etc.) under a common currency aren't that big a problem as long as national social, budgetary and fiscal policies are unified. That is the case across Italy and across the USA. Across Europe it is not. You have different social, pension and tax...

The low in 10y German bund yield in 2009 was 3% (at the peak of global panic). Now 1.41% (all time low). Who would've thunk?

Looking at multi-week SPX chart... haven't heard much Hussman bashing lately.

Let's also not forget Hank Paulson thought it'd be a great idea to let Lehman fail in a disorderly manner on a Sunday evening and thought the market was 'well prepared' and the impact would be muted. 48 hours later he started wetting his pants. There's no telling if there's a large...